15d • NFL Picks
Thursday Night Football Week 2 Picks: Commanders vs Packers
Total Pick: Under 48
The total is sitting at 48, and while some trends point toward the Over, I like the Under in this spot.
- Green Bay has gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games overall.
- Thursday night games on short rest often produce slower starts and fewer explosive plays.
- Washington is 0–6 straight up in their last six trips to Lambeau, and in many of those games they’ve struggled to score more than 17 points.
The Commanders are built to run the ball and chew clock, but when they fall behind in Green Bay, they rarely find their rhythm. Add in a Packers defense that plays much better at home, and this sets up for a lower-scoring game.
Official Pick: Under 48 | Confidence: Medium
Side Pick: Packers -3.5
This is the play I feel strongest about tonight. The Packers are laying -3.5 at home, and Lambeau has been a house of horrors for Washington.
- The Commanders are 0–6 SU in their last six games in Green Bay.
- Washington may be 8–1 SU in their last nine overall, but that momentum hasn’t carried into this building.
- Green Bay thrives in primetime at Lambeau, with a defense that sets the tone and an offense that does just enough to close games out.
The spread is short enough that we don’t need a blowout. All we need is Green Bay to do what they’ve done consistently in this matchup — win and cover at home.
Official Pick: Packers -3.5 | Confidence: Medium-High
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Thursday Night Football Week 2 Picks: Commanders vs Packers
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