May 24 • General discussion
20 questions and answers during the 67-minute webinar today
- First Test of Live Webinars and Tesla Shorting
- Future Hype Cycles and Tesla's Valuation
- Tesla's Irrational Valuation and Future Prospects
- Psychology of Investing - Emotional Control
- Psychology of Investing - Position Sizing
- Psychology of Investing - Additional Resources
- Market Priced for Perfection
- Mega-Cap Returns Over the Next Decade
- Sources of Growth for Tech Giants
- Valuation Multiples and Economic Limits
- Comfort with High PE Ratios
- Impact of Size on Opportunity
- Historical Examples of Tech Dominance
- Challenges for Large Companies
- Risks for Mega-Caps Over the Next Decade
- Competition and Innovation Disruptions
- Potential for Radical Innovation and Geopolitical Impact
- Consumer Behavior and Future Trends
- Question about Transocean (RIG)
- Transocean Analysis Karl-Mikael Syding discussed Transocean, an offshore contract trading service for oil and gas wells, noting its small market cap of 2.2 billion. Despite having high cash production when profitable, the company's share price has significantly declined since 2008 and is near all-time lows.
- Financial Situation Karl-Mikael Syding observed that Transocean has reduced its debt but still holds 6.6 billion, with an enterprise value of 8.6 billion, questioning what supports this valuation. While EV to sales appears low, EV to EBITDA is seven times, which isn't expensive if profitability and growth are expected. However, Karl-Mikael Syding pointed out they haven't produced profits recently, although cash flows from operations seem stable at around 500 million.
- Sustainability and Risks Karl-Mikael Syding questioned the sustainability of Transocean's strategy of maintaining existing rigs without building new ones, relying on higher oil prices. The company's cash from operations translates to very small free cash flow, making it a highly leveraged play on oil prices. Karl-Mikael Syding highlighted risks including oil market prices, demand for deep-sea rigs, and potential political restrictions due to environmental concerns.
- Investment Conclusion Karl-Mikael Syding stated that with the current high leverage, reliance on oil price improvement, potential recession, and political risks, they cannot recommend Trans Ocean as a good investment at this time. Karl-Mikael Syding concluded the session and mentioned future Q&A opportunities to expand their audience.
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20 questions and answers during the 67-minute webinar today
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In this community, I share my real-time investment process, shaped by years of managing a billion-dollar hedge fund.
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