Jun 11 • Draft Prep & Strategy
ADP is Dead Wrong in These 9 Backfields and Receiver Rooms
Treating Average Draft Position (ADP) like gospel is a great way to build a mediocre fantasy roster. One of the most profitable draft strategies is aggressively fading expensive players in "ambiguous" situations in favor of their cheaper teammates. In these nine rooms, the market has it completely backward.
Here is why you need to draft the cheaper teammate, with the metrics to prove it.
Chicago Bears Pass Catchers
The Play: Draft Rome Odunze (62.7) over Colston Loveland (36.7) & Luther Burden III (47.3). Paying a premium third-round pick for TE Colston Loveland is a massive opportunity cost. Wait two full rounds for Odunze, a true alpha who commanded a 24% target share and an elite 2.30 yards per route run (YPRR) down the stretch. He is positioned to dominate high-value air yards.
New England Patriots Backfield
The Play: Draft Rhamondre Stevenson (75.3) over TreVeyon Henderson (52.7). Avoid shiny new toy syndrome with Henderson. Stevenson is a proven commodity, hovering around 3.2 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) with top-15 rushing success rates. At a two-round discount, you get guaranteed high-floor volume and goal-line duties.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Backfield
The Play: Draft Kenneth Gainwell (103.3) over Bucky Irving (53.7). Irving is an expensive leap of faith, while Gainwell projects to dominate high-value PPR touches. Gainwell consistently posts an elite Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) rate above 20%. Let others draft Irving while you grab cheap trailing-game-script points late.
Carolina Panthers Backfield
The Play: Draft Jonathon Brooks (115.0) over Chuba Hubbard (72.3). Forget the idea of early-season safety with Hubbard. His efficiency plummeted in 2025 to a dismal 3.8 yards per carry, managing just a single touchdown on 134 attempts. Instead, target Jonathon Brooks. Now fully healthy entering 2026, Brooks boasts an elite 90th percentile college prospect profile. His explosive collegiate metrics point to a true three-down workhorse waiting to be unleashed at a massive discount.
Pittsburgh Steelers Backfield
The Play: Draft Rico Dowdle (85.3) over Jaylen Warren (80.3). Warren is a fantastic sparkplug, but his ceiling is capped by his size. Dowdle boasts a top-tier success rate on inside zone runs and aligns perfectly with Pittsburgh's physical red-zone scheme, giving him massive touchdown upside over Warren.
Indianapolis Colts Receivers
The Play: Draft Josh Downs (110.7) over Alec Pierce (80.3). Pierce is entirely dependent on volatile, high-aDOT deep shots. Meanwhile, Downs dominates out of the slot with a 75%+ catch rate against zone coverage. Downs offers a vastly superior PPR floor nearly 30 picks later.
Pittsburgh Steelers Receivers
The Play: Draft Michael Pittman Jr. (105.7) over DK Metcalf (85.0). Metcalf is a highlight reel, but Pittman is a bulletproof possession receiver. Pittman commands a 28% target share and routinely ranks top-five in route wins. His elite intermediate efficiency makes him a much safer asset at a steep discount.
Denver Broncos Backfield
The Play: Draft J.K. Dobbins (100.3) over RJ Harvey (78.7). Let someone else risk a 7th-round pick on Harvey, assuming an immediate workload. Dobbins brings pristine analytics: a career average over 5.0 YPC and an elite juke rate. Scoop up the highly efficient veteran runner in the 9th round.
New York Giants Tight Ends
The Play: Draft Theo Johnson (235.5) over Isaiah Likely (109.3). Why pay a 9th-round pick for Likely in a murky offense when you can get a 6'6" size-speed freak for free? Johnson posted a staggering 9.93 Relative Athletic Score (RAS). Draft him with your last pick for identical touchdown upside.
0
1 comment
ADP is Dead Wrong in These 9 Backfields and Receiver Rooms
powered by
skool.com/fantasy-football-playbook-5711
Your secret weapon for fantasy domination! Join the Playbook for expert rankings, draft strategies, trade advice, and a highly active community.
Suggested communities
Powered by