The Danger of the ADP Bust: Drafting a player who fails to live up to their Average Draft Position (ADP) isn't just about losing points from one roster spot; it’s about opportunity cost. 1. Christian McCaffrey: He's officially in the "400 club" after leading the NFL with a massive 450 touches in 2025. Historically, RBs over age 29 who hit this threshold face a cliff; only one back in the last 13 years has repeated as a top-5 fantasy asset the following season. Between the natural regression of his 3.8 YPC late last year and Kyle Shanahan’s public plans to reduce his workload to preserve his health, CMC is a major risk at his current RB1 price tag. 2. Chuba Hubbard: While Hubbard was a hero for the Panthers last year, the era of him as a workhorse is likely over. Jonathon Brooks is finally 100% cleared from his back-to-back ACL recoveries and is being groomed as the true franchise lead back. With the addition of veteran AJ Dillon to handle short-yardage work, Hubbard’s path to 15+ touches a game has vanished, and he’ll likely be relegated to a secondary, change-of-pace role sooner than most drafters realize. 3. Jaylen Warren: Despite his efficiency, Warren’s ceiling is capped by the arrival of Rico Dowdle on a two-year deal. New head coach Mike McCarthy has a long history with Dowdle from Dallas and is already signaling a "60-40" split leaning toward Dowdle as the early-down "alpha." Warren is an elite 1B, but with McCarthy’s preference for a defined rotation and Dowdle’s back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, Warren will struggle to provide a return on a high-end RB2 investment. 4. Zach Charbonnet: The timeline for his return from the ACL tear he suffered in the 2025 playoffs remains murky at best. Conservative estimates suggest he won't be fully healthy until late November or December, meaning he’ll likely spend the majority of the season on the PUP list. With the Seahawks drafting Jadarian Price in the first round to fill the void left by Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet could return to a crowded backfield where he is, at best, a third-string situational player. 5. RJ Harvey: Harvey’s explosive rookie season relied on a massive volume increase after injuries hit the Denver backfield, but the room is now far too crowded. Sean Payton brought back a healthy J.K. Dobbins and spent a mid-round pick on Jonah Coleman, a "perfect fit" scatback who excels in the exact receiving role Harvey occupied. Harvey is likely headed for a three-way committee where he loses goal-line work to Dobbins and third-down snaps to Coleman, making him an easy fade.