National Economic & Mortgage Rate Update
The quick takeaway
The U.S. economy is cooling but stable, and mortgage rates are volatile, not collapsing. This is no longer a rate-driven frenzy market. It’s a strategy-driven housing market.
National Economic Snapshot
Inflation
- Inflation has eased from peak levels but remains above the Fed’s long-term target.
- Progress is uneven, which is why rate cuts are slower and more cautious than headlines suggest.
Federal Reserve
- The Fed is firmly in a “wait and see” stance.
- Cuts are being discussed, not rushed.
- The Fed is prioritizing economic stability over housing stimulus.
Labor Market
- Job growth continues but is cooling gradually.
- Wage growth is slowing, which reduces inflation pressure but also caps buyer urgency.
Consumer Sentiment
- Consumers are cautious, not fearful.
- Big purchases are being analyzed more carefully, especially housing.
Mortgage Rate Update (What Actually Matters)
Where rates are behaving
- Rates are range-bound, not trending sharply down.
- Daily swings are driven by inflation reports, bond yields, and Fed commentary.
- Buyers waiting for “massive drops” are still waiting.
Why rates aren’t crashing
- Inflation isn’t fully defeated.
- Strong employment keeps upward pressure on rates.
- Global uncertainty keeps bond markets volatile.
What buyers are doing
- Buying based on payment comfort, not rate optimism.
- Using temporary buydowns, seller credits, and creative financing.
- Accepting refinance later, but not betting their life on it.
Housing Market Implications (Nationwide)
This is NOT 2021
- No panic buying.
- No blind over-asking offers.
- No forgiveness for bad pricing.
This IS a professional market
Homes that are:
Overpriced homes
- Sit.
- Get negotiated.
- Eventually chase the market down.
How Agents Should Position This (Talking Points)
For Buyers
- “Rates matter less than purchase price and monthly payment.”
- “You can renegotiate the rate later. You can’t renegotiate price.”
- “This is the most leverage buyers have had in years.”
For Sellers
- “Today’s buyer is analytical, not emotional.”
- “The market rewards realism and preparation.”
- “The first 14 days determine the final sales price.”
For Agents
- Rate fear creates opportunity for professionals.
- Education wins listings.
- Strategy beats optimism.
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National Economic & Mortgage Rate Update
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