Mortgage and Economic update!
U.S. Mortgage Rate Update (this week)
- 30-year fixed: 6.16% (Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending Jan 8, 2026)
- 15-year fixed: 5.46% (same survey)
- Context: Freddie Mac shows the 30-year was 6.93% this time last year.
- Day-to-day volatility: Mortgage News Daily’s daily index shows ~6.07% for 30-year fixed on Jan 14, 2026, which is directionally consistent with “mid-6%” pricing.
Takeaway: Rates are not “low,” but they’re meaningfully below last year’s levels, which is slowly improving affordability—especially when paired with seller credits/buydowns.
Inflation Update (latest CPI)
- Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY (December 2025)
- Core CPI (ex food & energy): +2.6% YoY (December 2025)
Takeaway: Inflation is closer to the Fed’s long-run target than it was, but still not fully “mission accomplished.” This keeps the Fed cautious and is one reason rates remain elevated.
Jobs / Labor Market (latest Employment Situation)
- Unemployment rate: 4.4% (December 2025)
- Payroll growth: +50,000 (preliminary, December 2025)
- Note: BLS also flagged that October 2025 data were not collected due to a federal government shutdown, which can complicate trend interpretation in late-2025 labor comparisons.
Takeaway: The labor market appears to be cooling rather than collapsing—a setup that can allow gradual rate relief, but not necessarily a fast drop.
Federal Reserve / Interest Rates (policy backdrop)
- The Fed’s Dec 10, 2025 statement emphasized ongoing uncertainty and balancing inflation with employment risks.
- Recent Fed commentary reported today (Jan 14, 2026) continues to frame the outlook around inflation moderatingand whether the job market stays stable.
Takeaway: The rate path is still “data-dependent.” If inflation continues easing without a sharp labor downturn, the market typically prices in a slow, stepwise move lower—not a sudden plunge.
Housing Market Pulse (macro)
- Nationally, existing-home sales in 2025 were reported around a 30-year low (~4.06M) with affordability constrained by high prices + ~7% mortgage era hangover, though late-year rate relief helped some activity.
Takeaway: The market is still rate-sensitive. Even small rate improvements can unlock pent-up demand, but inventory and affordability remain the main friction points.
What this means right now (simple guidance)
For buyers
- Expect mid-6% rate environment with weekly noise; negotiate seller credits, temporary buydowns, and repairsmore aggressively than in 2021–2022.
- The “win” is often terms: inspection flexibility, appraisal strategy, and closing timelines—more than headline price.
For sellers
- Pricing is still king: in a payment-sensitive market, overpricing gets punished fast.
- Homes that show well and are positioned correctly capture the buyers who are active despite rates.
What to watch next (the short list)
- Next CPI release: Feb 11, 2026 (BLS scheduled)
- Weekly Freddie Mac mortgage rate trend (Thursdays)
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Mortgage and Economic update!
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