11d • Crypto / Web3
Protect your Main Bags / Dont Fight the Trend
We Are Not in Normal Market Conditions (Read This Twice)
We are living through a period of extreme cross-market volatility — the kind that reminds you markets are not purely emotional… they are structural.
We’ve watched gold and silver rally aggressively this year, then experience sharp, coordinated selloffs. Crypto has been hit. Equities have been hit. Liquidity shifts are happening fast.
This is what unstable macro environments look like.
The JPMorgan / Silver Context (Receipts, not vibes)
It’s not “conspiracy” to say big banks have manipulated metals — because regulators and the DOJ already prosecuted it.
In September 2020, the CFTC ordered JPMorgan entities to pay $920M for spoofing/manipulation in precious metals and U.S. Treasury futures.
The DOJ also entered a Deferred Prosecution Agreement tied to unlawful trading in precious metals markets (same enforcement action).
The SEC also published a press release describing the enforcement stack and the $920M+ total across actions.
So when people notice “interesting” timing around silver collapses, it lands differently because there’s precedent.
Now, on the recent crash + bounce: there have been public reports/posts claiming JPM closed/covered a meaningful silver short position around ~$78 (near the lows / where price stabilized). This claim is circulating via a “COMEX report / delivery data” narrative referenced by the Kobeissi Letter and repeated by market commentators.
Important: those recent “closed at the bottom” claims are not the same thing as a regulator finding manipulation. They are reports and interpretations of positioning/delivery data that may or may not be complete. Treat them as signal to investigate, not gospel.
What is well-documented is that the metals move was violent and largely positioning/liquidation driven — a “shock unwind” after leverage piled in.
Translation: when leverage gets forced out, markets can crash regardless of “fundamentals.”
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So how do you operate in an environment like this?
1) Accumulate assets you have long-term conviction in
Not hype. Not narratives. Conviction.
Examples many investors continue to study:
Bitcoin — monetary asset thesis
Chainlink — infrastructure/oracle layer
High-quality crypto with real adoption
Select hard assets (gold/silver, depending on your thesis)
Everyone’s allocation differs — this is framework, not prescriptions.
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2) Do not fight the trend
The trend is your friend — until the end.
If the market is trending down, respect it. Hope is not a strategy.
Draw your trend lines.
Identify support and resistance.
Buy at support. Sell at resistance.
Let price confirm before you act.
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How to Recognize a Potential Reversal (Simple, ruthless)
In a downtrend:
A higher high + higher low is step one.
If it happens again — structure is shifting.
What says it’s not a reversal?
Price prints a lower low.
The chart does not care about opinions.
Only structure.
Right now, many charts suggest we are not clearly at a macro bottom yet.
Patience is a position.
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Tactical Reminders for Volatile Cycles
Don’t get shaken out of core positions.
Dollar-cost averaging reduces emotional decision-making.
Cash is optionality.
Risk management > ego.
If you’re advanced, strategic shorting can be a tool — but it’s not beginner territory.
And remember:
Not investing during obvious downside is itself a position.
You don’t have to swing at every pitch.
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Psychological Edge
Be kind to yourselves in these markets. Volatility is designed to test conviction.
There’s a reason most wealth transfers happen during emotional extremes.
And one of my favorite reminders:
When a storm comes, buffalo don’t run away — they move directly through it.
They minimize the time spent inside the storm.
Stay steady. Stay strategic. Zoom out.
All storms pass.
The question is not whether volatility will end.
The question is:
Will you still be positioned when the next expansion begins?
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Protect your Main Bags / Dont Fight the Trend
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