From: Vladik on 𝕏: https://x.com/Kostoglodov/status/2071144065857679631 Shaw (spirit/acc) on 𝕏: https://x.com/shawmakesmagic/status/2070918006033817867

Literally everyone in tech keeps saying AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is coming in like 2 to 3 years. But honestly, looking at how things are going right now, I’m starting to doubt it. Is true human-level AI actually inevitable, or are we just hyping it up too much? Here is why I feel like it might happen: - AI is building AI: Models are already writing a ton of their own code now. If AI just keeps upgrading itself, it's bound to explode at some point. - Reasoning models: AI isn't just spitting out the next word anymore. It actually pauses and "thinks" through math and coding problems now, which is kind of insane. - Infinite money: Big tech companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers and chips. They aren't going to stop anytime soon. But here is why I think we might hit a wall: - It still feels fake: An AI can solve a crazy math problem, but then fail at a super simple logic puzzle just because it wasn't in its training data. It feels like super fast memorization, not actual smarts. - Power limits: These things use a terrifying amount of electricity and water. We might literally run out of power grids before the AI gets smart enough. - Moving goalposts: Every time AI does something cool, we just say "okay, but it's still not real AGI." We don't even know what the finish line looks like anymore. Are we actually going to see sci-fi level AI sometimes in 2027-2029, or is this whole boom about to plateau hard? Drop your thoughts below.