Hello everyone, For the past few weeks, it has looked like we are in a sideways market. Which way are we headed? The market is currently very unclear. Are we going up, or are we in for another crash? To be honest, it’s difficult to say. Interest rates (10Y/30Y) are at an all-time high, inflation figures are higher than expected, and another rate hike is anticipated for December 2026, among other factors. I believe the market wants to move upward, but we first need to wait for these macroeconomic conditions to improve so that we can return to a "risk-on" market environment. What do you all think?

I used to think “buyback” meant the US was printing money to pay off its debt. It doesn’t. Here’s how it actually works, step by step. Step 1: Bond price and yield are linked A Treasury bond pays a fixed amount per year. The price changes every day because investors trade bonds with each other. - Pay €800 for a bond that pays €50/year → yield 6.25% - Pay €1,000 → yield 5% - Pay €1,250 → yield 4% Same bond, same €50. The higher the price, the lower the yield. Price up = yield down, price down = yield up. Everything else builds on this. Step 2: The buyback itself The Treasury announces it wants to buy back a certain amount of its older bonds (recent operations were around $4B each). It works like a reverse auction: 1. Investors who own old bonds offer them at a price. 2. The Treasury accepts the cheapest offers. 3. The investor gets cash, and the government no longer owes anything on that bond. It’s voluntary, and the Treasury pays the market price of that day. Step 3: Where does the money come from? This is the part I got wrong. - The Treasury collects taxes, spends and borrows. It cannot create money. - The Fed is the only one that can create money (QE). So the Treasury pays with cash it already has, or by selling short-term T-bills at the same moment. A T-bill is a loan of up to 1 year: you pay €980 today and get €1,000 back later. Result: the Treasury swaps long-term debt for short-term debt. The total debt stays the same and no new money enters the system. Step 4: Why do it? With fewer long bonds around and an extra buyer, bond prices go up. From step 1 we know that means yields go down. Long yields determine what mortgages, business loans and the government’s own borrowing cost. Lower long yields mean cheaper financing for everyone. The Treasury is also always there as a buyer, which makes the market less nervous. Step 5: The catch - It’s small: a few billion per operation against roughly $40T of debt. - It doesn’t fix the cause. Yields are rising because of worries about debt and inflation, and a buyback doesn’t remove either. - Rollover risk: T-bills mature quickly, so the Treasury has to borrow again soon. If rates are higher by then, it pays more. It’s like swapping a 30-year loan for a 1-year loan and hoping rates drop in time.

After being on X for some time, it surprises me how many people want to HODL. To be honest, I'm not a very big fan of it. Why? Because you WANT and NEED to make actual money and profit from investing. Look, I know holding your positions for a very long time beats every investing system in the long term. But wouldn't it be way better to just buy low and sell high? So you actually make profit that you can invest again when the market is low. If you invested in ETH 5 years ago and you didn't sell high and buy low, you would be red today. AFTER 5 FUCKING YEARS. Understand that long-term investing is very, very powerful. But when it's time to take profit, do it.

Something interesting just happened in the derivatives market: altcoin open interest just flipped Bitcoin's, for the first time since December '24. In plain terms, open interest = the total amount of leveraged/speculative positions sitting open on futures markets. For most of the past year, BTC has dominated that number. Now, for the first time in almost 2 years, alts (as a group) have more speculative capital parked in them than Bitcoin does. Worth being clear on what this does and doesn't tell us: it says nothing about direction, this isn't bullish or bearish on its own, it just shows where leverage is flowing. But historically, this kind of shift has lined up with the early stages of what people call "alt season", a period where alts start outperforming BTC. Not a signal to ape in, just a data point worth tracking closely over the next few weeks