📊 Market Update — Thursday, March 26

Good afternoon family.

Let’s talk about what’s happening in this market and what we should be doing with our money right now. This is going to be a real, honest conversation.

What’s Driving This Market

Markets are being hit hard today, driven by rising U.S.-Iran tensions, surging oil prices, and growing doubt around any ceasefire deal. Yesterday we got a rally on peace deal hopes. Iran rejected it. Markets overreacted going up, and now we’re paying for it going down.

Oil is up about 5%, sitting near $94.80 a barrel. Until that comes down and we get real clarity on the geopolitical situation, every “up day” you see is likely a trap. This is a war-headline market — unpredictable by nature.

SPY — The Big Picture

SPY is currently sitting around $647–649, right on a critical breakdown zone. Here’s what the structure tells us:

• Price is below all 3 moving averages — the 20, 50, and 200-day

• The 20 SMA is crossing below the 50 — a classic bearish signal

• We have a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart

• Volume is elevated, meaning sellers are active and in control

Key Levels To Know:

🔴 $660.63 — Major resistance. No bullish case until price reclaims this with conviction

🟡 $654.26 — First potential buyer response zone

🟠 $649.60 — Breakdown confirmation zone (we’re sitting right here)

🔴 $644.91 — Next downside target if $649 fails

Until we reclaim $660.63, the bears are in charge.

Former Leaders Are Rolling Over —

This Is A Warning

This is the part that worries me most. The stocks that held up the longest — the last soldiers standing — are now breaking down. Memory stocks like MU, STX, SNDK, and WDC are breaking below their 20 and 50-day SMAs. When the strongest stocks finally give in, that is historically a signal of deeper market weakness ahead — not a buying opportunity.

Our Positions — Let’s Be Real

FSLY $40 Call (Sep 26) — If you’re near breakeven or slightly up, that is your exit signal in this environment. FSLY stock itself is down nearly 3% on the day. There is no reason to hold through chop when you can lock in your cost basis or a small profit.

AMPX $25 Call (Jan 27) — Currently down $140, or -25%. AMPX is trading well below the $25 strike, meaning this call is deep out of the money. Jan 2027 gives it time, but in this market climate, holding a losing speculative position requires real conviction. If you don’t have that, trimming is the responsible move.

VIAV $40 Call (9/18) and ISSC $40 Call (10/16) — Both have strikes well above where the market is trading. In a bearish environment, out-of-the-money calls bleed premium every single day. If either is near breakeven, take it off the table.

🏦 My Recommendation: Raise Cash Now

I am not going long on anything right now, and I want to encourage you to do the same.

✅ Trim any position where you’re at breakeven or in profit — lock it in, no regrets

✅ Don’t add to losing positions trying to average down in a downtrend

✅ Build your watchlist — identify 5-10 stocks and map out key levels NOW so you’re ready when conditions improve

✅ Study your charts — learn how your stocks react at support before risking more money

✅ Let the market prove the lows are in before stepping back in

💡 The Bigger Lesson

Most of us are working with small accounts. That means one bad decision can set you back significantly. The most important skill in trading isn’t picking winners — it’s preserving capital when the market isn’t giving you an edge.

The opportunities will come back. They always do. Right now the market is not rewarding long positions — so we simply don’t force it.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Protect your account. 💪

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