EAGLETRADE MARKET OUTLOOK — FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2026

EagleTrade family,

End of week. Let’s talk about what happened today and what it means for all of us going into next week.

THE BIG PICTURE

The market closed red to end the week. The S&P 500 finished at 6,632, down 0.61%. The Nasdaq closed at 22,105, down 0.93%. There was a recovery attempt early in the session. It could not hold. By close, sellers had retaken control.

This is not a market in panic. But it is a market under real pressure. The Iran conflict is keeping oil elevated and uncertainty high. The Fed meets Tuesday. PPI data drops the same day. With that much on the calendar, most institutional money is not making big moves going into the weekend. They are waiting. We should be too.

One bright spot worth acknowledging: VIAV closed up 0.71% at $29.97. In a session where almost everything finished red, that kind of relative strength does not go unnoticed. We keep watching that name.

AU AND EQX — AN HONEST UPDATE

I want to address these two plays directly, and I want to do it with full transparency.

AU (AngloGold Ashanti) — $94.89, down 7.85% today

AU hit an all-time high of $128.26 on March 2. It closed today at $94.89. That is a 26% move against us in less than two weeks. The $120 call with April 17 expiration is now deep out of the money with 35 days remaining. The original thesis, that gold would hold strength while the broader market struggled, has not played out the way we expected.

The honest call here is to exit Monday at the open. There is no shame in that. Taking a controlled loss is one of the most professional things a trader can do.

EQX (Equinox Gold) — $14.57, down 8.48% today

EQX peaked at $18.96 on February 25 and has been under steady selling pressure since. Today it closed at $14.57. With the $17.50 strike and the expiration clock running, the math no longer supports holding. Same guidance as AU: plan your exit for Monday.

To everyone who took these trades, I want you to hear this clearly. These were reasonable plays based on a sound thesis. Gold was breaking out. The broader market was shaky. Rotating into a safe haven commodity play made sense. The market moved in an unusual sequence that worked against us.

That is not a failure of thinking.

That is trading.

It happens to everyone, including me.

WHY GOLD DID NOT BEHAVE THE WAY WE EXPECTED

This is worth understanding because it will make you a better trader.

The Iran conflict sent oil prices surging toward $100 a barrel. High oil introduces inflation risk. Inflation risk signals that the Fed stays higher for longer on rates. Higher rates and a strengthening dollar both work against gold, because gold pays no yield and becomes relatively less attractive when cash and bonds are paying well. The safe haven trade we expected got overridden by a different macro sequence entirely.

The metal itself is not broken. Long term, the structural case for gold remains intact. What broke was the timing within a short expiration window. This is precisely why our standard framework calls for 6 to 12 month Deep Swings. Longer timeframes absorb exactly this kind of short-term volatility. These plays were momentum trades with a tighter runway. When the momentum reversed, there was not enough time left for the thesis to recover.

That distinction matters. File it away.

A WORD ON POSITION SIZING

I want to leave you with this going into the weekend.

However this week felt in your account, use that feeling as data. Not as guilt. Not as discouragement. As information.

If AU and EQX hurt more than they should have, that is your position sizing telling you something. Our guideline exists for exactly this reason: no single trade should represent more than 3 to 5% of your total trading capital. That ceiling is not arbitrary. It is the rule that keeps one difficult week from becoming a damaging month. It is what separates traders who grow over time from traders who wash out after a tough stretch.

The most you can ever lose is what you put up. When you size correctly, even the trades that do not work leave you with the ability to come back and take the next one. That next one is where you make it back, and then some.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK

Rest this weekend. Review your positions with clear eyes. Have your exit plan for AU and EQX ready before Monday opens. And beyond that, hold cash. The Fed and PPI on Tuesday will tell us a lot about where this market wants to go next. We will have a full outlook ready for you then.

We did not win this week. But we are still in the game. That is what disciplined trading looks like.

Trade wisely. Stay sharp.

— Aziz | EagleTrade

This content is for educational purposes only and reflects personal observations and trading approach. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.

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