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Iran vs US/Israel conflict
This weekend, the Iran vs US/Israel shifted from proxy tension to direct strikes. The Supreme Leader of Iran has been comfirmed dead & Tehran has responded via missile attacks to Qatar, UAE and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that carries roughly 20% of globally traded oil. Markets reacted instantly. Brent Crude Oil jumped 10-13% in early trading as supply risk was repriced. Continued partial disruption in Hormuz could push oil sharply higher to the $100/barrel mark and beyond, feeding inflation expectations. Air travel is already strained. Over 1,000 flights have been cancelled, with more than 6,000 rerouted. Industry analysts estimate potential losses exceeding $1 billion if disruption persists. Equities opened lower, wiping billions from global market value in early sessions as investors rotated into gold and the US dollar. Near term winners include energy producers and defense stocks. Airlines, logistics firms, and consumer discretionary names face margin pressure from higher fuel costs and reduced demand. In the midst of all this, Bitcoin guzzler Microstrategy $MSTR bought 2486 Bitcoins this week despite being underwater @ $10k per coin for the 717k Bitcoins they already own. I'm wondering; could these tensions and the associated inflation fears fuel a refreshed appetite for Bitcoin as the digital gold is wildly underpriced in comparison to it's physical counterpart? What are your thoughts?
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Blood In The Streets
2 days ago the markets looked calm. They're not. Crypto's bleeding: $BTC is down 40% from highs, alts are getting wrecked. Funding rates negative, leverage flushing. Everyone's calling it a "healthy pullback." Feels more like a stress test to me. WHAT'S ACTUALLY MOVING THE MARKETS? - Macro: Tariffs, sticky inflation, Fed stuck on hold. The Dollar Index $DXY firming (97.6). Gold pulled back from 2,900+ as U.S.-Iran talks eased tensions—temporarily. - Critically, the noise you might've missed: Epstein files dropped this week, political theater heating up, regulatory uncertainty spiking. Markets hate unpredictability, and POTUS 47's serving it daily. - Tech wreck spillover: AI jitters hitting Nasdaq, crypto correlation holding. BTC's trading like a risk asset, not a hedge. - Labour market cracking: January 2026 saw 108,435 announced job cut, the highest January total since 2009 during the Great Recession. Hiring plans hit their lowest January on record (since tracking began in 2009). *UPS (30k cuts) and Amazon (16k)* drove the bulk, but the signal is broader: employers set these plans at the end of 2025, meaning they're defensive heading into 2026. Private payrolls added just 22k jobs vs. 45k expected—without healthcare hiring, the number would've been negative. THE REAL STORY? Capital's fleeing, not rotating. BTC dominance climbing while altcoins die isn't "pre-altseason"—it smells like a bear wearing bull clothes. While everyone's distracted... Real World Assets (RWA) are quietly building. Tokenized treasuries, yield without duration risk—institutions are bridging TradFi/DeFi while you panic-scroll red candles. Higher-for-longer rates make this attractive. Hong Kong's pushing regulatory clarity. Banks are testing. Beginner - Intermediate Gameplan? If you already have investments in Crypto or Stocks then right now you've got 3 options. - 1. Capitulate & sell everything and walk away from Crypto for good. - 2. Step away from the charts for a few days or weeks and only come back to buy more Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). - 3. Try to time the markets by selling to USDC and waiting for BTC to drop to 50k then buying back in at 50k steadily and waiting to see if we get to 32k.
Blood In The Streets
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