Just finished chapter 4 of Am I Being Too Subtle?, which is set in the early-'70s crash — overbuilding, a REIT blowup, rates spiking, and lenders sitting on properties they didn't want and couldn't run. Everyone else was frozen. Zell looked at it differently: the supply/demand math had already corrected, nobody was building anything new, so anything he bought below replacement cost was going to look cheap on the other side. Between 1974 and 1977 he assembled roughly $4 billion in assets, mostly on personal guarantees with very little cash down. Sellers were so desperate to get out from under the debt service that the equity was almost free. Real estate moves in cycles. 2008. Arguably 2020. Roughly every decade, though never on the dot. Which raises the question: where are we right now? My read is we're on the tail end of a bull run. Whether that means a real correction shows up in 12 months or 24 and which asset class it hits harder, I have no idea. Just something to think about! But the reason it matters is this: the money gets made when everyone is running away from an asset class. Real estate, small businesses, stocks — doesn't matter. That's when sellers are motivated and competition disappears. Buying when everyone is running in is just how you overpay with extra steps. Zell wasn't a genius in 1974, he was awake while everyone else was paralyzed. Where do you think we are in the cycle, and what are you doing about it right now — buying, holding cash, or building your list for when it turns?

Tell us: 1️⃣ Your name & where you're based 2️⃣ Where are you on your real estate journey? 3️⃣ What are you working toward in the next 12 months?

Chris Powers’ podcast is probably one of my top 5 favorite real estate podcasts. They cover everything from industrial and multifamily development to turnkey investing and value-add strategies. When I first started listening to Chris and the guests he brings on, I realized I was thinking way too small. It completely changed how I look at building a real estate business. If you have Spotify this is the one I was just listening too - https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uVswDv6IwqQrrSAxECEZ1?si=eHeTFgN3SmO5jxLqL9SEFg&utm_source=copy-link

https://product.costar.com/suiteapps/home/news/article/1049458038 Many of you may not have access to the full article, but you can catch Scott Everett on the Powers Podcast, it's a fascinating listen seeing the predicament he's currently in. I broke it down below for you. S2 Capital — a Dallas firm that acquired 51,000+ units and raised $13 billion, just formally wound down its $400M multifamily fund. ~150 investors are walking away with zero return. What went wrong: • Launched the fund in Sept 2022 — right as the Fed started hiking aggressively • Loaded up on floating-rate debt — when rates surged 50%+, so did interest payments • Bet heavily on Sun Belt workforce housing — demand was supposed to be fueled by immigration • Trump reversed immigration policies → demand collapsed just as record new supply hit the market • Result: 20-30% rent declines, crushed occupancy, underwater properties They tried everything — sold assets, modified loans, shopped for 9 months with a capital placement agent. Still failed. The takeaway for you: 1. Floating rate = loaded gun. If your deal only pencils because you're betting on rates coming down, that's not a deal. 2. Demand assumptions are not guarantees. S2 underwrote to immigration-driven demand. That policy flipped. What are your assumptions and what happens if they're wrong? 3. Supply kills markets. Sun Belt got hit with 40-year record supply. Know your market's pipeline before you buy. 4. Size doesn't equal safety. $13B raised, still zero return. Operators at every level get wiped by bad leverage + bad timing. Cash flow first. Stress test everything. Know where your rents are actually coming from.

Hey everyone, it’s been a while since I posted here, so here’s a quick. The 20-unit: we closed in September. We had five vacant units at closing, and we’ve turned three of them so far. The other two are next. My brother and I are doing most of the work ourselves. Leasing has been slow. The renovated units look great, but they’re taking longer to rent than we planned. We’re adjusting how we market them and keeping a close eye on pricing. Property management has been quiet. We haven’t added any new management clients these last two months. I’m working out the best way to market that side of the business, so if you have ideas, or you’ve seen what works for management companies, I’d like to hear them. More updates soon, and I’ll start posting here more often! Quick question for you: what are you working on right now? Just drop a one-liner below, like “looking at a 4-unit,” “saving for my first deal,” or “managing my own rentals.”