Our first pick is the total — Over 51.5 (Confidence: Medium).Let’s start with the scoreboard. I like points tonight. Both offenses are built for chunk gains and red-zone conversion, and Baltimore’s cross-conference profile has leaned Over in these spots. The path is simple: if Baltimore plays from in front, the Lions’ pass game ramps pace and volume; if Detroit lands explosives early, the Ravens answer with field position and their own red-zone efficiency. Either way, we get extra possessions and short fields. Think 27–24 or 30–24—common game scripts that clear 51.5 without needing a track meet. The one caution is finishing drives; if either team stalls for too many threes, it tightens. But with these quarterbacks and coordinators, I’m comfortable grading Over 51.5 — Medium confidence. Our main pick is the side — Lions +6 (Top Play of the Night; Confidence: Medium).Now the spread. Straight up, I still lean Ravens—they’re 8–1 SU at home recently and 5–0 SU hosting Detroit. But survivor logic isn’t betting logic, and +6 is a different question. The Lions are 12–6 ATS in their last 18 and live in back-door territory because they stay aggressive late and convert fourth downs. Baltimore’s Week 3 ATS profile is lukewarm, and laying a full six against a resilient Detroit offense is expensive. What I like most: Detroit’s ability to live in second-and-manageable, keep the call sheet open, and create two-way cover paths—trade scores all night and land inside the number, or chase late with tempo for a fourth-quarter squeeze. If the Ravens jump out 10–0, Detroit’s hurry-up and fourth-down appetite can get you back within reach. If it’s tight throughout, six points are gold in the final two minutes. That’s why Lions +6 is our Top Play—we respect Baltimore’s straight-up edge but take the number with Detroit.