WHERE WE START Monday was a big recovery day. The Nasdaq 100 index rose 3.40 percent and closed near 27,908, after opening around 27,263. The index traveled between roughly 27,228 and 28,026 during the session, so that pair of numbers is our prior day low and prior day high. December NQ futures settled at 28,014.50. Overnight was quiet, and then it was not. NQ traded just under the settlement for most of the overnight hours, down about 0.1 percent at 3:17 AM Eastern and about 0.3 percent by 7:40 AM. The inflation report at 8:30 AM changed the picture. NQ is now down about 1.1 percent, which is roughly 320 points under the settlement, and that puts price near 27,700. We will not pretend to a precise overnight high and low this morning, because the quotes we can verify do not agree closely enough to publish them. The useful read is this. Price has given back a meaningful part of Monday's gain, but it is still inside Monday's range, a little above the middle of it. Monday's low near 27,228 is the floor that matters below us. Monday's high near 28,026 is the ceiling above us. Both are close enough to reach today. WHAT IS ACTUALLY MOVING THE TAPE The October Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected. Headline prices rose 0.4 percent for the month against a 0.3 percent forecast, and the core reading, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3 percent against a 0.2 percent forecast. Shelter accounted for more than thirty percent of the monthly increase, food rose 0.5 percent, and energy rose 0.7 percent. The twelve month figures were not published, because last October's data was never collected. The reason this matters more than a usual tenth of a point is the Fed. Governor Chris Waller said overnight that he leans toward a quarter point rate hike in December, and that a half point hike should be considered if inflation came in hot. It came in hot. Bonds moved immediately. The two year Treasury yield jumped about 14 basis points to 4.69 percent, and the ten year rose about 6.5 basis points to 4.93 percent. The thirty year sits above 5.25 percent and is also higher. Rising yields press hardest on the big technology names that carry the Nasdaq 100, which is why NQ is weaker than the Dow this morning.

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