Our first pick is the total — Over 51.5 (Confidence: Medium).Let’s start with the scoreboard. I like points tonight. Both offenses are built for chunk gains and red-zone conversion, and Baltimore’s cross-conference profile has leaned Over in these spots. The path is simple: if Baltimore plays from in front, the Lions’ pass game ramps pace and volume; if Detroit lands explosives early, the Ravens answer with field position and their own red-zone efficiency. Either way, we get extra possessions and short fields. Think 27–24 or 30–24—common game scripts that clear 51.5 without needing a track meet. The one caution is finishing drives; if either team stalls for too many threes, it tightens. But with these quarterbacks and coordinators, I’m comfortable grading Over 51.5 — Medium confidence. Our main pick is the side — Lions +6 (Top Play of the Night; Confidence: Medium).Now the spread. Straight up, I still lean Ravens—they’re 8–1 SU at home recently and 5–0 SU hosting Detroit. But survivor logic isn’t betting logic, and +6 is a different question. The Lions are 12–6 ATS in their last 18 and live in back-door territory because they stay aggressive late and convert fourth downs. Baltimore’s Week 3 ATS profile is lukewarm, and laying a full six against a resilient Detroit offense is expensive. What I like most: Detroit’s ability to live in second-and-manageable, keep the call sheet open, and create two-way cover paths—trade scores all night and land inside the number, or chase late with tempo for a fourth-quarter squeeze. If the Ravens jump out 10–0, Detroit’s hurry-up and fourth-down appetite can get you back within reach. If it’s tight throughout, six points are gold in the final two minutes. That’s why Lions +6 is our Top Play—we respect Baltimore’s straight-up edge but take the number with Detroit.

Total Pick: Under 48 The total is sitting at 48, and while some trends point toward the Over, I like the Under in this spot. - Green Bay has gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games overall. - Thursday night games on short rest often produce slower starts and fewer explosive plays. - Washington is 0–6 straight up in their last six trips to Lambeau, and in many of those games they’ve struggled to score more than 17 points. The Commanders are built to run the ball and chew clock, but when they fall behind in Green Bay, they rarely find their rhythm. Add in a Packers defense that plays much better at home, and this sets up for a lower-scoring game. Official Pick: Under 48 | Confidence: Medium Side Pick: Packers -3.5 This is the play I feel strongest about tonight. The Packers are laying -3.5 at home, and Lambeau has been a house of horrors for Washington. - The Commanders are 0–6 SU in their last six games in Green Bay. - Washington may be 8–1 SU in their last nine overall, but that momentum hasn’t carried into this building. - Green Bay thrives in primetime at Lambeau, with a defense that sets the tone and an offense that does just enough to close games out. The spread is short enough that we don’t need a blowout. All we need is Green Bay to do what they’ve done consistently in this matchup — win and cover at home. Official Pick: Packers -3.5 | Confidence: Medium-High

I’ve made some adjustments to the office pool picks — I dropped the 49ers from 9 points down to 5 and moved everyone else up accordingly. The concern is the 49ers’ injury situation, with Brock Purdy expected to miss 2–5 weeks due to a turf toe variant and Mac Jones stepping in at quarterback. Plus, they’re on the road. I still think they can win, but the margin feels less secure. Also moved the Steelers and Dolphins. 🔒 Safest Picks 16 pts – Ravens over Browns 15 pts – Cowboys over Giants 14 pts – Rams over Titans 13 pts – Bills over Jets 👍 Solid Picks 12 pts – Cardinals over Panthers 11 pts – Lions over Bears 10 pts – Packers over Commanders 9 pts – Chargers over Raiders 8 pts – Bengals over Jaguars 7 pts – Vikings over Falcons. ** 6 pts – Steelers over Seahawks ** 5 pts – 49ers over Saints ⚖️ Toss-Up Tier ** 4 pts – Dolphins over Patriots 3 pts – Texans over Buccaneers 2 pts – Chiefs over Eagles 1 pt – Colts over Broncos

@Bob Johnson Thanks for letting me in your group. This is really super interesting ✌️🤗