Market Recap July 15th - Final Countdown, Lessons Gained
Hi there, welcome to the final countdown of my prop firm challenge. This is the recap of Day 30 – the day I crashed my funded performance account. 📉 Summary: Yesterday was the last dance. I took a technically solid trade, but got hit with a 3-point slippage on the Micro ES – yes, Micro, with its low liquidity. My planned 4-point stop turned into a 7-point loss. At that point: $10 left in the account. I still had a 2pt.-room for one final trade with one contract – again, a valid setup – but got stopped out immediately… and, of course, the trade ended up working afterwards. But let’s rewind and look at what actually happened in the market. 📊 Market: The market opened with a gap down on Monday – tariff talk again. Then reacted bullishly Tuesday night – also… tariffs? Back and forth. Noise. Headlines. At 2:30pm (CET), CPI data dropped. The market reacted positively and traded close to or above ATH in the pre-session. We saw: - Heavy volume accumulation in the weekly range's value area high - bullish - A classic P-shape volume profile – bullish - A strong gap up open above yesterday’s high - bullish - Higher highs, no lower lows - bullish - News-driven bullish momentum on top of a technically bullish structure Then came the strongest sell-off in weeks. That’s trading. By the way: my account was deleted overnight. So, no trade screenshots. But hey, I’m not here to fool myself – I know what happened. 🧠 Lessons Learned - This final day had everything: - I traded Micro ES, trying to extend my limited capital - I had only a couple trades left in the tank - I’ve been fighting low-volatility, headline-driven chaos for days - I made mistakes early in the challenge – especially in risk management – and was still trying to recover Still, my first trade: - Aligned with my analysis - Confirmed by seller absorption, low volume rejection, value area re-entry attempt - I executed it unemotionally, with discipline But: slippage ended the game. In hindsight, I had even watched my playbook in the morning: “Best setup today would be to wait for a long trade at the previous week’s midpoint.” Yes, a short after the open was risky but valid. Yes, my long was valid too. No one can guarantee the outcome – it's all about probabilities. The likelihood of a retest of the previous week's midpoint was highest (68.2%), not that of a noisy bullish breakout (!).