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13 contributions to Wealth Builders Community
Sep '24 •
When you finally manage to time it perfectly
Hi Guys, I guess we all dream of holding quality compounders for a long time and preferably picking them up at a fair price. BUT, what do you do when you finally manage to pick one up and it rushes up at rocket speed, to become what you regard overvalued? Example: I got lucky and picked up the medical device company Mettler toledo (MTD), when it briefly dipped in nov 2023, but the marked has since send it up almost 50 % . I currently regard it overvalued with near term growth prospects being challenged as well. SO, what to do? Take the money and run or wait it out, knowing it could be flat for 2-4 years an im even likely to see a few huge dips along the way? But also knowing it is a stable long term grower which will be here 10 - 20 years from now and have done its magic compounding trick. What do you do in these kind of situations?
2 likes • Sep '24
@Paul R. Thanks! A great and clear explanation. I will keep this bookmarked for when i get a good buy/sell idea next. And I totally agree that selling is extremely hard to get right - often time i try io justify a sell-decision with some kind of risk consideration, but most often just kidding myself I think.
Sep '24 •
What stocks are currently of interest to you?
I don't have anything particularly tempting on my watchlist at the moment. Recently, I've made a few purchases, including Hershey Co. (HSY) at $191.39, Nike Inc. (NKE) at $73.12, and Robert Half International Inc. (RHI) at $68.56. Additionally, I regularly reinvest dividends into the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). Right now, there's nothing I'm eager to buy.
4 likes • Sep '24
Im looking to add to some of my existing positions based on a combination of them being relatively new holdings in my portfolio and hence not full positions yet + they seem at or near fair price to me. They are: GOOGL, BKNG, IEX. Apart form this I have taken a very small speculative "cyclical election bet" in SLB. SLB is at a decade-low valuation (EV/EBITDA 6,7 - only 2008, 2011 and 2020 saw this low) but has fine near term growth outlook and is a profitable business. If Kamala wins I expect it to dip like we will never need oil again, and I will scoop up some more (because 6-12-18 month later we will realize we cannot do without it and the price will normalize). If Trump wins I expect a "relief jump" for an oil-stock like this. If nothing plays out like I hope, I will stick with it and call it a coffecan investment ;-)
Sep '24 •
98 Elite Businesses
Here is the screen results :) https://youtu.be/nm-DjSOgoyU?si=zK8HWVGkJyhLM1Cu
3 likes • Sep '24
Great video! Many interesting companies to keep an eye on.
2 likes • Sep '24
Sorry if its a bit random, but a few observations about the list: Not surprising it seems specific sectors/industries are over represented. E.g. there are a lot of semiconductors / semi equipment. And credit services / financial data. And there also seem to be quite a lot from health care. A bit more surprising to me was that so many large diversified mining companies made the list (BHP, RIO, VALE). I would normally not look in that direction because of cyclicality etc., but maybe that is a mistake. Also notable is "who is missing" Forinstance, among all the semiconductors, Im surprised AVGO and TSMC missed the list? Those I regarded top quality but maybe need to take a second look. Happy to see Google made the list because I own it, but wonder why META didnt make it? Happy to see EW and A from med-devices because I own both, but also a bit surprised how many from that sector didnt make it into the list. Super happy to see names from my candidates list, like GGG, SNA, KEYS and ADP. Finally, Im a bit dissapointed that only 8 of my 24 holdings made it into the list. On the positive; my four largest holdings are there ( V, EW, ZTS, SPGI).
Aug '24 •
Portfolio averages Terry Smith style
I have for some time followed the British super investor Terry Smith. A funny thing about his presentations is, that he presents key metrics for his entire portfolio (averages). All though my main focus is on selecting and holding individual stocks, I thought it could be fun to take a portfolio view. Here is a snapshot of my current US-stocks portfolio (avg of 24 holdings with weigths between 7,32 % to 2,58 %): Its quite expensive: P/E: 28,5 , EV/EBITDA: 20,9 , P/FCF: 24,8 But highly profitable: Profit margin: 62,4% , FCF Margin: 15,4% , ROCE: 18,3% And with a solid (but not impressive) outlook: Revenue FWD: 7,35% , EBITDA FWD: 9,99% , EPS FWD: 10,56% I was a bit surprised, especially by the relatively modest growth outlook - not sure I would invest in a company or ETF with these numbers;-). Made me reflect that I may be biased towards mature companies and that I should look to add a little more growth with my next investment. Do you use these kind of Portfolio averages? Which metrics do you follow and do you use it in your process?
1 like • Sep '24
@Tony S I tend to agree. "Dont do what he does. Do what he says he does" . 1. Buy good companies. 2. Dont overpay. 3. Do nothing.
1 like • Sep '24
@Nathan Winklepleck 3. of course the hard part ;-)
Aug '24 •
What makes a business elite?
So obviously, owning an "elite" business for years is a great idea for any investor at basically any level. And of course, you would like to invest when that business was fairly valued, if not undervalued. But for our discussion here, let’s exclude the value at which a business is priced. 1. What do you look for in an "elite" business? 2. What do you look for that indicates a business is becoming “elite”? 3. What are the indicators that a business is no longer “elite”?
1 like • Sep '24
@Tony S Cool! It is my fifth largest position and make up 5,1 % of mine.
1 like • Sep '24
@Chris Wright No, I may have said all the same things about LIN and in some key figures LIN is even higher quality. APD on the other hand have more runway for improvement. I think its a bit like V/MA, LOW/HD, MCO/SPGI, etc. Some industries attract duopolies/oligopolies and high quality companies (simply buying both is probably wisest but i tend to choose one and stik with it).
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