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60 contributions to Rebel Economist (Free)
The MMT Fallacy
For those that don't want to read this entire post, let's not bury the lead: MMT is wrong: - The U.S. does not have a spend and then tax system, we have a tax then spend system - The U.S. Treasury does not issue the U.S Dollar - The Fed does not issue reserves for the Treasury to spend - The Fed does not issue new reserves to pay the Gov's bills directly - The Gov cannot spend before receiving tax receipts or revenue from bond sales Below I explain in detail exactly why. Please let me know if you think I made any mistakes. After many, many hours of discussions with friends here and elsewhere, I think it’s finally becoming clear, I have finally gotten to the bottom of the MMT debate, so please let me know if you agree. We can have a tax and spend system, which many people believe we have today, and under a tax and spend system in 2024, the USG would have taxed roughly $5T and spent roughly $7T, showing a roughly $2T deficit, and the Gov would have had to borrow roughly $2T to cover the deficit spending. Or we can have a spend then tax system, which MMT believes we have today, and in 2024 the USG would have issued and spent $7T and taxed back $5T, showing a $2T deficit, as the USG spent $2T more than they received back in tax revenue. Two different systems that in practice don’t matter much until you have a deficit. Under a tax and spend model, to cover deficit spending the Gov has to borrow, because desired spending exceeds tax receipts. Under a spend first then tax back model, the Gov already spent the $, so the deficit is covered by issuing money, no borrowing or debt, the deficit is created because tax receipts are lower than currency issued and already spent, so all the money issued is not all taxed back. Which model we have is the heart of the MMT debate. A currency issuer always has a liability for the currency they issue, which means when they issue their currency they increase their Liabilities on their Balance Sheet, and when they receive their currency back as payment, they reduce their Liabilities. If they receive 100% of the currency they issued back as payment, their Liabilities go to zero and all currency is removed form circulation.
0 likes • 29d
@Gerard Borg Let’s see where we agree or disagree… Model 1, Treasury can spend by issuing new Liabilities to pay their bills, but that creates negative Equity, agreed? Or Model 1, the BoE can just pay Treasury’s bills, creating new Liabilities, but that creates negative BoE Equity, agreed? Midel 2, We have to separate Treasury spending v BoE Ressrves creation. Model 2, the BoE creates new reserves via BS expansion, new Ressrves are used to buy new assets +A - (+L) = 0. Model 2, Treasury receives reserves from banks via tax payments or bond sales, the BoE transfers via Liability Swap, -L +L = 0. Model 2, Treasury pays banks Ressrves, BoE facilitates via Liability Swap -L +L = 0. I am not asking you which model we use, I am just making sure we are clear on how each model works, b/c I explained Treasury as issuer if Treasury Coin I think that’s most likely, but BoE could be model 1 as well, or model 2. This is the entirety of the universe of what we are discussing. Model 1 Treasury issuing to spend, model 1 BoE issuing to spend, model 2 BoE issuing and Treasury taxing or borrowing to spend. “>>Under model 2 when Treasury spends we will see no net increase in total issuer/BoE liabilities because new issuer/BoE Liabilities +L (+Reserves) are offset by a reduction in issuer/BoE Liabilities -L (-Reserves) to Treasury. Treasury itself sees this as a reduction in Assets -A ( -Reserves) and a reduction in Equity (-E). This us an asset payment for Treasury (-A = -E) but a Liability Swap for the BoE (-L+L = 0).<< “You are now saying that Model 2 shows a Treasury spending money into existence by decreasing its assets. No. Remember, Treasury cannot create assets, right? Your Model 2 is exactly Figure 7 of K-K. In other words it is MMT. Again, no, not sure how my words are not reaching you. 1. Treasury can only spend assets or Ressrves it has on deposit. It cannot create new asssts to spend. No exceptions. Understood? 2. If Treasury has Assets, only then can it spends its assets -A = -E. 3. If Treasury has no Assets, it is not possible to spend Assets unless it borrows assets. 4. When Treasury borrows, it expands its balance sheet, which causes no change in Equity. 5. When treasury borrows from the BoE, they both expand their BS, Equity neutral for both, BUT, BoE does create new Ressrves which Treasury borrows and spends. This is still model 2 b/c the issuer BoE uses new money to acquire new Assets, Treasury loan, which prevents a loss of issuer Equity., 6. The Treasury could issue their own Liabilities like Treasury coin, which creates negative Equity.
0 likes • 5h
@Gerard Borg Q1 “>>Model 1, Treasury can spend by issuing new Liabilities to pay their bills, but that creates negative Equity, agreed?” Yes, but whether Treasury spends their assets (reserves they received from banks), or issues new Liabilities, Treasury spending creates negative Equity. 0 = A - L - E L= A - E Therefore: +L = *A OR -E +L = +A OR +L = - E Model 1: +L = -E Model 2 +L = +A None of that should be controversial, it’s simple accounting. There can be no other models if money is issued as a Liability, which modern money is under DEBK. Note: for Asset money like Gold or Treasury reserve account credits at the CB: -A = -E Treasury Spending reduces Equity whether the currency is an existing asset (issued by CB) or if it is a new Treasury Liability. Q2: “Or Model 1, the BoE can just pay Treasury’s bills, creating new Liabilities, but that creates negative BoE Equity, agreed?<< It depends. +L to spend = -E +L to acquire Assets does not change BoE Equity: +L = +A Therefore, when Treasury spends, it always creates negative Equity, but what the data will show helps us understand if we are in Model 1 or model 2. If Treasury spending causes an increase in Ressrves and creates negative BoE Equity, model 1. If Treasury spending causes no increase in Ressrves and no negative Equity, but instead shows an increase in Assets, model 2. There are no other models under DEBK as currency is issued as a new liability, so + L MUST RESULT IN EITHER +A or -E. The data will show you which. It’s pretty simple really, when the Treasury spends, either Treasury Assets and Equity decrease -A = -E. Or when Treasury spends are they issuing new currency +L = -E? Do BoE reserve account Liabilities increase (+Reserves)? And if they do, (+L) do BoE Assets increase (+A)? Conversely, for Treasury receiving tax payments; Model 1: -Liabilities = +Equity Model 2: +Assets = + Equity Receiving taxes increases Treasury Assets in both models.
FJG vs UBI for full employment and price stability
Preliminary simulations using MESSSI (Macro Economic System State Simulator) developed by Tyron Keynes reveals that whereas the FJG is superior to UBI in targeting this dual objective, nevertheless a combination of the two when applied to lower income earners contributes significantly in reducing overall income and wealth inequalities. https://www.relearningeconomics.com/what-the-messsi-model-says-about-a-ubi-and-fjg
0 likes • 22d
@Richard Corin “Obviously we have a fundamental disagreement about what constitutes fiat money.” I think we are in intellectually trying to better understand each other,m, and work through any differences that be bridged… “We agree about the mechanics of government payments. The government credits the payee's bank's reserve account and the bank obeys the instruction to credit the payee's deposit account.” Fantastic! Payment complete! We agree! What more is there to say understand? “Then everything dissolves into nonsense, because I say the fiat money is in the payee's bank account, “ Ahh…yes. This is vexing…but you do agree the public does not hold ressve account credits ur Ressrves in their deposit account, right? And you do agree that the bank receives assets from other banks for payment, not public or bank liabilities, not deposits, agreed? And then creates the new deposit or new bank liability, a new bank IOU to their customer? And the deposit is an IOU from the bank? So is our disagreement the ressrves received by the bank is legally the asset of the public? Or where do we go wrong? “but you say the fiat money is in the bank's reserve account at the CB.” Where else can it be? It’s a bookkeeping entry, nothing more, a digital credit on the central bank’s servers, which is a bank asset but a central bank liability. “We see the pea go under different shells.” There is no pea! That’s the fundamental problem, ressrves are settlement balances that live their r tire existence in the central bank’s ledger. They are created when banks swap their assets for Reserves account credits, and if the CB sell their assets there are no more reserves. In fact, the Fed has $3T in reserve account liabilities and $3T in Treasury bonds. If treasury simply pays off those bonds at maturity, the Fed de-issues those reserve liabilities and Ressrves are no more. “To my way of thinking, your definition is equivalent to saying bank credit money does not exist in deposit accounts either, “
0 likes • 20d
@Richard Corin “Settlement accounts do not hold money! You cannot buy dinner with reserves! Reserves are a behind the scenes accounting mechanism and cannot be part of the money supply.” Agree! But those are reserves,, reserve account credits, and Ressrves are nothing more than this. “The money, whether it be government originated fiat money” Reserves + bills that are purchased by banks from the CB by swapping for Reserves, which banks purchased swapping their assets with the CB. All fist is Central bank Ledger credits, nothing more. “ultimately backed by treasury liabilities, “ No! Reserves are not necessarily backed by Treasury bonds, but they can be. The CB only accepts High Quality Liquid Assets HQLA to swap for reserves. “or bank credit money ultimately backed by private liabilities, “ Backed by bank Assets. Deposits are bank liabilities, ledger credits fir customers, backed by the bank’s asset portfolio. “it is only money if it can be used for transactions in the real economy, as opposed to moving assets around the back office accounting mechanism.” If you want to say only bank liabilities are money, fine, they are 97% of the public money supply, with paper bills making up the rest. Therefore, when a government taxes, money is destroyed, -deposits, reserve account credits are moved from one account to another, not de-issued and not destroyed. The only way they can be destroyed is if they are used to pay an CB. and when a government spends, money is created. The money they received from banks, reserve account credits, are spent, meaning returned to banks. The banks then create new IOUs for their customers, new deposits, which they owe but the gov does not. It is wrong to say, "no new money is created", Wrong? Let’s be specific, ‘net’ new money, a net increase in the money supply. Gov spending always results in new deposits, but if those deposits were taxes, then is -Deposits +Deposits = 0 new money? An increase in the money supply?
UK Infrastructure Financing
For those of you that do not know me, I write about the inner workings of modern money mechanics. I recently discovered something in preparation for my new book on the Pound coming out soon, and I dedicated a chapter of my book on it but wrote a lighter version in a substack post explaining how the UK can match Germany’s 500b off-balance-sheet infrastructure investment with one of their own that requires: 1. No increase in debt. 2. No increase in taxes. 3. No cuts to spending. 4. No net increase in the money supply. Who would oppose that? Sound too good to be true? The secret is by temporarily stoping Fiat money or reserves from being de-issued, then issuing a new Digital Pound to pay for infrastructure, backed by those reserves. After they have been cycled through infrastructure, the BoE de-issues those reserves instead of sending profits to Treasury. It’s model 1 (MMT) v current model 2 (tax or borrow to spend). I think it works really well, here’s why… During COVID, the BoE purchased a tremendous number of Treasury bonds to save the financial economy and give Parliament money to help prop up the real economy, but many complained it didn’t do enough. As those bonds mature, Tressury sells new bonds and uses the money to pay off the old bonds, which de-issues that Fiat and takes it out of circulation forever. My proposal is to delay that de-issuance until we finance new infrastructure to make the economy more competitive. Steve has shown energy prices track closely with GDP, so Green energy and grid modernization investment is high on the list. In short, we get infrastructure investment today in exchange for no BoE profits in the future: https://substack.com/@jonunderwood/note/p-205262691?r=emteb&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action I’d love to hear your thoughts and feedback for anyone who has the time to read it! @Alwyn Lewis hoping you can review.
0 likes • Aug 28
@Alwyn Lewis well…Based upon Wynne Godley’s sectoral balances equation, negative Gov equity is positive public Equity
Errors In The MMT UCL Self Financing State Article
Friends, I read the UCL Self Financing State Article, which MMT points to as ‘proof’ the Bank of England creates new money for the Government to both spend and deficit spend. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4890683 The research on the U.K. Government accounts is fantastic! However, their conclusions do not seem to match their research, it is like they wrote the conclusions before they wrote the paper! Chris Rimmer asked me to write out the mistakes I am seeing in their conclusions, so here it is. Please review, and let me know if you see any mistakes; if so, what do you think am I missing? Or do you agree they made mistakes? Please advise. Thx! 1. The U.K. Parliament Approved Deficit Spending Over The Last 4 Years. · 120B pounds 21/22 · 127B POUNDS 22/23 · 134B POUNDS 23/24 · 146B POUNDS 24/25 P24 : https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9040/CBP-9040.pdf 2. The BoE Has Reduced The Supply Of Reserves Almost 30% The Last Four Years From Around 1T Pounds To Roughly 700T Pounds Today. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/bank-of-england-market-operations-guide/our-objectives Q: How could reserves go down if the Bank of England was issuing new reserves to pay for Government spending or Deficit Spending? 3. The Treasury Debt Management Office (DMO) Sells Gilts Before Funds Are Needed, So Treasury Always Has Excess Reserves On Deposit To Meet All Spending Obligations, And Does Not Need To Borrow From The Bank Of England. https://www.dmo.gov.uk/responsibilities/financing-remit/ 4. The U.K Government And HM Treasury Credit Line With The Bank Of England Shows The Government Has Not Borrowed From The Bank Of England In The Last 15 Years.
0 likes • Aug 4
@Gerard Borg Did this PDF above help clarify things? What questions are you left with?
0 likes • Aug 6
@Gerard Borg “"I have read the document thoroughly. There are no errors that I can see.” Excellent! We are making progress! (And FYI, Steve added the tax, not me) “1. Treasury spends their Assets Assets (-Spendg)“ What Assets did they have to spend? If Treasury does not have reserves in deposit, it must borrow from the public, from banks, or from the CB. I have shown here: https://substack.com/@jonunderwood/note/p-207306025?r=emteb&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action “We could equivalently write, 1. Treasury creates a new liability Liabilities (+Spendg) Equity (-Spendg)” This is what an issuer does, pays by issuing new Liabilities which is spending their Equity. +L = -E But the Tressury can only issue Lisbilities on their own ledger, and so this would be True for Treasury Coin. But to spend Ressrves, they have to have them on deposit prior to spending or borrow them prior to spending. The Treasury cannot create reserve account Liabilities in the Fed’s ledger any more than Treasury can create bank deposit Liabilities on a bank’s ledger. What good is DEBK if we throw it out the window when we analyze deficit spending? Treasury borrowing expands their BS: +A (+R) +L (+Bonds) When they spend the Assets they acquired, Treasury incurs negative Equity: -A = -E “We could equivalently write, 1. Treasury creates a new liability Liabilities (+Spendg) Equity (-Spendg)” So hopefully the error here is now clear. Treasury cannot spend Ressrves it does not have, it has to borrow Ressrves, or issue its own currency. “2. Central Bank expands its balance sheet Assets (+Spendg Treasury) Liabilities (+Spendg Reserves Bank)” No, if the Central Bank is facilitating Treasury spending reserves they have on deposits, it’s a Liability Swap for the CB: -L (-R Treasury Account) +L (+R Banks)
Unlimited inflation
Hey @Jon Underwood is this new Fed Chair promising unlimited inflation? For me his math isn’t mathing. I keep hearing austerity out of one side of this mouth and rising inflation out of the other. Of course you know I think that finance will s black magic, but we are both concerned about inflation surely. Do you have any idea what’s happening?
0 likes • Jun 17
Hey @Nadine Gizak Great to hear from you! From what I am hearing, he wants to shrink the size of the Fred’s Balance Sheet, During Covid, Central Banks purchased a lot of bonds on the secondary market, which allowed Treasury to sell new bonds to the private market. The Fed does this through Balance Sheet (BS) expansion via Open Market Operations OMO, or expanding the quantity of the supply of reserve account credits aka ‘reserves’ by buying assets from banks aka QE. Fed BS Expansion: +Assets (+bonds) +Liabilities (+reserves). This allowed the Treasury to expand their BS by selling new bonds to the private market to fund the stimulus. Treasury BS Expansion: +Assets (+reserves) +Liabilities (+bonds) Interestingly, which nobody seems to understand or cover, when these bonds mature, if nothing is done the Treasury pays off Principal and Interest (P&I) to the Fed, which contracts BOTH the Fed BS and Treasury BS, which contracts the supply of reserve account credits aka reserves: Fed BS Contraction -Assets (-bonds) -Liabilities (-reserve account credits or reserves) Treasury BS Contraction: -Assets (-reserve account credits to pay P&I) -Liabilities (-Bonds) The Fed determines optimal supply, which today is thought to be where they are at, around $3T. So if the supply drops below target, the Fed has to either do new OMO, OR, just swap maturing bonds with Treasury for new bonds after the bond market closes and sets the daily price. This is called a paper swap. But, Warsh seems to be signaling that he wants to contract the Fred’s BS, and one easy way to do that is just let Treasury sell new bonds to the public to payoff old bonds held by the Fed, which both reduces the Fed BS AND reduces the supply of reserves. Banks will sat the payment function of the Fed will not function properly if the Fed reduces reserves, but the Fed is paying Interrst On Resetve Balances IORB for banks to park reserves. If they quit doing that, banks will buy more Tressuries, which will drive rates down, which will grow the real economy. Do we want to maximize GDP? Yes!
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