$UNH $365 put, Fri Oct 9 (25 days). 4.84% from current price, -0.25 delta, 1.30% ROI, 18.98% annualized. Historical probability at 81.23%, Monte Carlo at 67.92% — MC is in a bit of a disagreement but I still like it.
FIG — Got assigned at $24.50 originally. This is the second covered call against it. Last week's expired worthless, collected that premium, now selling the $26 call again. Collected another $100. Adjusted basis is down to $24.17 now. If it gets called away at $26, that's $996.75 profit. If not, I keep the premium and sell another next week.
Started watching the UNH $360 put, 28 DTE. 82% historical probability, 67.40% Monte Carlo. Delta -0.26, sitting about 5% OTM. Plan on entering early next week. If next week's candle closes well below $375, I'm most likely cutting it. But I think it will hold.
UNH — Sold the $367.50 put expiring next Friday, 7 DTE. 83.61% historical probability, 71.94% Monte Carlo. Delta -0.23, sitting about 3% OTM. Had a bearish engulfing this week into a level of support after pulling back from $460 — almost a 100 point decline. Looking for a double bottom here. I believe $375 holds as support. FOMC decision Wednesday and Fed speakers Friday so there's event risk this week — keeping that in mind. If UNH closes below $375 next week I'm taking the loss. Clear exit plan before entering.
FIGMA needs to drop another 10% to be in trouble here. Two gaps detected at $21.50 and $21 strikes. Sold puts at the $20 strike where support is detected — lines up with the chart technically too. IV rank is low at 24% but the probabilities are solid. Using Monte Carlo probability over historical on this one — 77.52% MC at the $20 strike. Historical shows 63.84% but MC factors in the current conditions better here. Entry at $0.18, 8 DTE. Watching it.