WHERE WE START Friday left the Nasdaq 100 futures contract, NQ, at 29,117.75. That was a quiet close at the end of a second straight losing week. Friday's range ran from 28,987 on the low to 29,326 on the high, a span of 339 points. This morning NQ sits near 29,140, a little above Friday's close and up about a tenth of a percent. Overnight the contract pushed up toward the 29,300 area, stalled there, and slid back. It has not gone near Friday's low. That puts us close to the middle of Friday's range. The two edges are the levels we care about today: 29,326 above and 28,987 below. Between them there is no clear structure, only Friday's own back and forth. The cash Nasdaq 100 index closed Friday at 28,957. The gap between the index and the futures contract is normal carry, not a signal. WHAT IS ACTUALLY MOVING THE TAPE Oil. Attacks on Saudi Arabia pushed crude to multi month highs late last week, and this morning it is coming back down. Brent is near $115 and West Texas crude near $101, both lower on the session. The reason is diplomatic: Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday to work on cooling tensions with Iran, with US coordination. Cheaper oil is why stock futures are firm and why the mood is calmer than Friday. But the story is unfinished. The same weekend brought reporting that US forces could be ready for major strikes on Iran on short notice. So the driver this morning is a headline, not a number, and headlines can reverse inside a minute. HOW WIDE THE DAY SHOULD BE The VIX is 19.45, barely changed from Friday. The VIX is the market's estimate of how much the S&P 500 will move over the next year, stated as a percent. To turn that into one day, we divide by the square root of 252, which is the number of trading days in a year. 19.45 divided by 15.87 gives 1.23 percent. Applied to NQ near 29,140, that is about 357 points. One standard deviation, about 357 points: $7,140 on one NQ contract, $714 on one MNQ contract. Half a standard deviation, about 178 points: $3,570 on NQ, $357 on MNQ.