Hey everyone, a family event just came up last minute and I need to move today's call to tomorrow. New time: Saturday, August 15th at 3 PM ET. If a different time would work better for you, drop it in the comments. I want to land on whatever works for the most of you, so tell me and I'll factor it in. I'm sorry for the last-minute change, I know that's not ideal and I appreciate your patience. As always, the full replay will be up right after for anyone who can't make it live, so you won't miss a thing either way. Two things to make up for it: 1. A brand-new YouTube video drops later this evening covering everything we were going to walk through today. Turn your notifications on so you catch it the moment it's live → https://www.youtube.com/@JoeConsorti 2. And in the meantime, go check out the Bitcoin Cycle Monitor at monitor.joeconsorti.com. I just pushed a big round of updates and integrated a lot of the feedback you all gave me, so a good chunk of what's new in there came directly from this room. Take it for a spin and let me know what you think. See you tomorrow at 3 PM ET. - Joe

Checking in, any updates on becoming a dad?

Hey Joe, I heard you mention on stream that you keep a larger percentage of your bitcoin on exchange versus in cold storage alone. Since I have started with bitcoin my practice has been cold storage only without even considering keeping btc on exchange. Keeping on exchange would be heresy! However, after latest coldcard issue and hearing you mention it and giving reasons why on stream I am considering it might not be such a bad idea after all. Could you help put my mind at ease and tell me how securing btc on RIVER or STIKE is a secure alternative? Planning on holding percentage in cold storage and percentage on exchange. Thanks man! ps. We just had our baby daughter on Monday morning! Even though you're exhausted, try to remember each little moment the best you can, they are only this little for a brief moment! Congrats man.

June CPI fell 0.4% month over month. First monthly decline since 2020. Core came in flat against expectations of +0.2%, and the annual rate dropped to 3.5% from 4.2%. Bitcoin popped above $64,000 on the print. Here's what actually happened, and here's why it matters more than the headline. /// THE OIL SHOCK IS WORKING ITS WAY OUT The single biggest drag was gasoline, down nearly 10%, the largest drop since 2022. That's the Iran war energy shock washing out of the data. This is the pipeline I've been hammering for weeks. Oil spikes, it feeds inflation with a lag, inflation dictates the Fed, the Fed dictates liquidity, liquidity dictates Bitcoin. June is the receipt. The shock went in, and now you can watch it come out the other end. /// WHAT THE FED PRICING ACTUALLY DID Read this part carefully, because most people have it backwards. Nobody was pricing cuts. The market was pricing hikes. Going into this print, July hike odds sat at 42%. Waller was out saying the Fed may need to raise to tame core. The June dot plot had 9 of 19 members projecting a 2026 hike. After the print, July hike odds collapsed to 17%. The tightening threat that has been sitting on every risk asset just got knocked down hard. Treasury yields fell, stocks rose, Bitcoin ripped through $64K. /// WHERE THIS GOES NEXT Here's the call. If disinflation continues, the last hike comes off the table too. Once you're pricing zero hikes with a cooling labor market underneath, the conversation turns to cuts. That's the path I've been pointing at. The honest caveat: this is round one of the oil shock, not the end of it. Trump reinstated the naval blockade, Brent pushed back above $85, and the gasoline drop that flattered this number can reverse fast. Traders still see roughly a 60% chance of a hike by September. Annual core is still 2.6%. The pipeline isn't finished. It's reloading. /// WHAT I'M WATCHING The Fed on July 28-29 with the hike threat defused for now. Then whether round two of the oil shock shows up in the July and August prints.

Trying to lock in a permanent slot that works for as many of you as possible. Vote below, and if none of these work, drop your ideal day/time in the comments.