Good morning everyone! Happy Monday. The bear market ended last Wednesday, and almost nobody believes it yet. /// 1. It didn't happen on a Bitcoin chart. At 8:15 Wednesday morning the Treasury published two paragraphs, no press conference: it would at least double its own bond buybacks, from $2B to at least $4B per operation. The government sells bonds to raise money, nobody wants the long-dated ones, so the government walks in and buys its own bonds back, manufacturing a buyer where there wasn't one. The government became its own customer. Forty minutes later Bitcoin was up $4,000. By Friday, up more than $15,000. 2. The intervention failed, and that's the most bullish part. Yields dropped Wednesday on the news, then 24 hours later the 10-year was back above 4.7%, higher than before they intervened, and the 30-year gave back its entire decline. The bond market took the money and handed back every basis point inside a day. So that same afternoon the Treasury Secretary went on TV and said the buyback has to get bigger, with no ceiling. Since then the support figure has kept climbing, now reported as high as $1 trillion, exactly as we said it would. Intervened Wednesday, failed by Thursday morning, committed to coming back bigger by Thursday afternoon. That's not a headline. That's a mechanism, and it only runs one direction. 3. A 7-sigma week that's only fired twice in a decade. Bitcoin just posted the largest US-dollar week in its entire history, roughly 25% in seven days. Measure it against Bitcoin's own 60-day volatility and it's a 7-sigma move. Only three weekly moves have exceeded 5 sigma in a decade. The other two were April 2019 (launch out of the 2018 bottom) and January 2023 (launch out of the FTX bottom). Both times Bitcoin broke above its 200-day and stayed there, and both times a multi-year run followed. Every 5-sigma-plus move in history averaged ~80% forward return over six months. Eighty percent from here is a $140,000 Bitcoin by February. 4. The money that panicked out is back. Over $2.4 billion in shorts got liquidated in three days against just $263 million in longs, an 11-to-1 destruction. Then the real buyers showed up: US spot ETFs pulled in $1.92 billion, the strongest week since October 2025. The same vehicles that were bleeding at the lows are buying back at higher prices. The 13Fs say the same thing, Paul Tudor Jones bought into the drawdown, JPMorgan more than doubled its position while price was falling, and Ray Dalio, the bond guy, told investors to underweight bonds and hold Bitcoin.

Hey Joe, I heard you mention on stream that you keep a larger percentage of your bitcoin on exchange versus in cold storage alone. Since I have started with bitcoin my practice has been cold storage only without even considering keeping btc on exchange. Keeping on exchange would be heresy! However, after latest coldcard issue and hearing you mention it and giving reasons why on stream I am considering it might not be such a bad idea after all. Could you help put my mind at ease and tell me how securing btc on RIVER or STIKE is a secure alternative? Planning on holding percentage in cold storage and percentage on exchange. Thanks man! ps. We just had our baby daughter on Monday morning! Even though you're exhausted, try to remember each little moment the best you can, they are only this little for a brief moment! Congrats man.