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1 contribution to Apartment Investing Secrets
Sad Story for the Impatient But Exciting Times...
for those with patience. What am I talking about? From 2020 to 2022, newer apartment investors laughed at how I do my underwriting. Politely they told me I was being conservative. Some told me that the deals I was looking for were "unicorns". I look for apartment deals that have 2.5 to 3x+ equity multiple WITHOUT assuming rent increases of 3-5% per year. I've been investing since 1999 so I know that rents DO NOT always go up 3-5% per year. Most of these newbie apartment syndicators were buying apartment deals that I consider BORDERLINE or mediocre deals that become "OK deals" because of the low-interest rates during those 3 years. They were impatient to get a deal. But I did not give in and followed the crowd. I stuck with my "too conservative" underwriting and I patiently waited for deals. During those 3 years, I added $100M worth of deals to my portfolio so my patience was rewarded and I proved that those "unicorn" deals exist. And today, that patience will be rewarded even more. There are $500B worth of multifamily mortgages that are MATURING in 2024 and 2025. Out of those, about 8-9% have a DSCR of less than 1. DSCR stands for Debt Service Coverage Ratio. A DSCR of 1 means the property can't even pay for the mortgage payment. So those are definitely going to be foreclosed on. Another 8-9% have a DSCR between 1 to 1.25. With today's higher interest rates, the DSCR of those mortgages if they refinance today will also be 1 or even below 1. In other words, those will be candidates for foreclosure too. That's a total of $90B of multifamily mortgages that will be FORECLOSED on in the next 2 years. It's a sad story for those impatient apartment syndicators. But it's an exciting time for those who patiently waited and not given in to FOMO.
Sad Story for the Impatient But Exciting Times...
0 likes • Apr '24
Awesome write-up. I always ensure we get fixed debt and that the property has plentiful income to cover future capex, reserves, vacancy, unit turnovers, inflation, insurance, etc. Shoring up a purchase even further by doing what you taught: buy the deal right and buy in the path of progress.
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Alexander Worthington
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@alexander-worthington-7838
Private Equity Alternatives Fund Manager (506c 3c1)

Active 9h ago
Joined May 25, 2023
Florida
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