13d • 🗣️ General discussion
👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Thursday, August 6, 2026
🌎 Market Context
* S&P 500 and Dow futures are relatively stable, while Nasdaq futures are lower as investors rotate away from semiconductor and high-capex AI companies.
* Technology is mixed rather than universally weak. NVDA, META, AMZN and AAPL are showing relative strength, while AMD, GOOGL and several semiconductor names remain under pressure.
* SPY is holding near record highs, but QQQ is the weaker index this morning.
* Initial jobless claims, productivity and labor-cost data arrive at 8:30 AM ET. Expect levels to shift after the report.
* Friday’s employment report remains the larger macro catalyst.
* VIX is sitting directly near the TFZ caution line. Do not assume buyers remain in control if it pushes above 16.
* Oil, Iran discussions and the Strait of Hormuz remain headline risks.
📊 VIX Game Plan
Current VIX: 15.98
🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control
🟡 16–18 = Caution
🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control
A sustained move above 16 would support additional pressure on QQQ and weaker semiconductor stocks. Below 15.75 would favor buyers.
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🟢 CALL WATCHLIST
NVDA – $221.86
CALLS
* Reclaim: 222.00
* Targets: 224.00 → 226.50 → 230.00
PUTS
* Lose: 218.50
* Targets: 216.00 → 213.50 → 211.00
Game Plan
NVDA is showing strong relative strength despite broader semiconductor weakness. Calls require a confirmed hold above 222 with volume. Avoid chasing an opening spike.
⸻
META – $593.06
CALLS
* Reclaim: 595.00
* Targets: 600.00 → 605.00 → 610.00
PUTS
* Lose: 588.00
* Targets: 583.00 → 578.00 → 572.00
Game Plan
META is holding up better than most mega-cap technology names. Above 595 favors continuation, while losing 588 would place yesterday’s strength at risk.
⸻
AMZN – $273.92
CALLS
* Reclaim: 275.00
* Targets: 278.00 → 281.00 → 285.00
PUTS
* Lose: 271.00
* Targets: 268.00 → 265.00 → 262.00
Game Plan
AMZN is showing relative strength and steady premarket accumulation. Look for a 275 break, retest and confirmed hold before entering calls.
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AAPL – $314.08
CALLS
* Reclaim: 315.00
* Targets: 318.00 → 321.00 → 325.00
PUTS
* Lose: 311.00
* Targets: 308.00 → 305.00 → 301.00
Game Plan
AAPL is holding green while Nasdaq futures remain lower. Above 315 with volume could attract additional rotation into the name.
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RTX – $223.88
CALLS
* Reclaim: 224.50
* Targets: 227.00 → 230.00 → 233.00
PUTS
* Lose: 221.00
* Targets: 218.50 → 216.00 → 213.00
Game Plan
Defense and industrial stocks are receiving relative interest. RTX is a rotation play, but calls still require confirmation above 224.50.
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🔴 PUT WATCHLIST
AMD – $477.30
CALLS
* Reclaim: 485.00
* Targets: 492.00 → 500.00 → 508.00
PUTS
* Lose: 475.00
* Targets: 468.00 → 460.00 → 450.00
Game Plan
AMD is the clearest bearish momentum candidate after its earnings reaction. It is already extended, so do not chase puts into the opening drop. A failed bounce below 485 or confirmed loss of 475 offers the cleaner setup.
⸻
GOOGL – $361.88
CALLS
* Reclaim: 365.00
* Targets: 369.00 → 373.00 → 378.00
PUTS
* Lose: 360.00
* Targets: 356.00 → 352.00 → 347.00
Game Plan
GOOGL remains under pressure while META and AMZN show better relative strength. A loss of 360 with QQQ weakness favors puts.
⸻
QQQ – $713.65
CALLS
* Reclaim: 718.00
* Targets: 722.00 → 726.00 → 730.00
PUTS
* Lose: 712.00
* Targets: 708.00 → 704.00 → 700.00
Game Plan
QQQ is the weaker major index this morning. Let the first 15-minute candle establish direction. Puts become more attractive below 712 if VIX holds above 16.
⸻
MRVL – $208.31
CALLS
* Reclaim: 212.00
* Targets: 216.00 → 220.00 → 225.00
PUTS
* Lose: 206.00
* Targets: 202.00 → 198.00 → 193.00
Game Plan
MRVL is participating in the semiconductor selloff. A weak bounce followed by rejection below 212 would be preferable to chasing the initial move lower.
⸻
MU – Price Confirmation Required at Open
CALLS
* Reclaim: Premarket high
* Targets: Next intraday resistance levels
PUTS
* Lose: Premarket low
* Targets: Prior support levels
Game Plan
MU is exposed to broad memory-chip weakness. Mark the premarket high and low before trading because the supplied screenshots did not include its current price. Favor puts only after a confirmed breakdown or failed bounce.
⸻
💵 Small Account Watchlist
SMCI – $30.41
CALLS
* Reclaim: 31.00
* Targets: 31.75 → 32.50 → 33.50
PUTS
* Lose: 29.80
* Targets: 29.00 → 28.25 → 27.50
Game Plan
SMCI is one of the few lower-priced AI infrastructure names showing relative strength. Calls require a clean hold above 31.
⸻
LYFT – $16.60
CALLS
* Reclaim: 16.75
* Targets: 17.10 → 17.50 → 18.00
PUTS
* Lose: 16.25
* Targets: 15.90 → 15.50 → 15.00
Game Plan
LYFT has earnings-related interest, which can increase volatility and contract premiums. Treat it as a two-sided event setup and avoid holding short-dated contracts through earnings.
⸻
SOFI – $18.07
CALLS
* Reclaim: 18.25
* Targets: 18.60 → 19.00 → 19.50
PUTS
* Lose: 17.75
* Targets: 17.40 → 17.00 → 16.50
Game Plan
SOFI is weak premarket. Calls require a reclaim of 18.25; otherwise, a confirmed loss of 17.75 keeps puts in play.
⸻
QBTS – $19.00
CALLS
* Reclaim: 19.50
* Targets: 20.25 → 21.00 → 22.00
PUTS
* Lose: 18.50
* Targets: 17.75 → 17.00 → 16.00
Game Plan
QBTS is a high-volatility momentum name. Keep position size small and require volume confirmation on either side.
⸻
APLD – $29.47
CALLS
* Reclaim: 30.00
* Targets: 30.75 → 31.50 → 32.50
PUTS
* Lose: 29.00
* Targets: 28.25 → 27.50 → 26.50
Game Plan
APLD is moving with the weaker AI-infrastructure group. Below 29 favors continuation lower; calls require a full reclaim of 30.
⸻
⭐ Top 3 A+ TFZ Setups
1. NVDA Calls Above $222
NVDA is separating itself from the broader chip selloff. Best bullish setup if 222 breaks, retests and holds with volume.
2. AMD Puts Below $475
The strongest bearish catalyst, but also the most extended. Wait for either a failed bounce or a confirmed breakdown instead of chasing.
3. QQQ Puts Below $712
Best index setup if VIX moves above 16 and Nasdaq weakness continues after the 8:30 AM labor data.
⸻
TFZ Game Plan
1. Wait for the 8:30 AM economic data before treating the premarket levels as final.
2. Let the first 15-minute candle establish market structure.
3. Use the 5-minute and 2-minute charts for confirmation.
4. Prioritize relative strength in NVDA, META, AMZN, AAPL and RTX.
5. Prioritize relative weakness in AMD, GOOGL, QQQ, MRVL and MU.
6. Do not chase AMD or other semiconductor names after a large opening move.
7. Watch VIX closely at 16. Below 16 supports buyers; a sustained break above 16 strengthens bearish setups.
8. Avoid holding short-dated ABNB, NET or LYFT contracts through earnings unless intentionally trading the event risk.
The broader setup is supported by Nasdaq futures underperforming amid semiconductor selling, while selected mega-cap and value-oriented names hold relative strength. Reuters market update Current VIX readings are hovering near 16. MarketWatch VIX
We don’t guess, we confirm.
Educational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Thursday, August 6, 2026
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