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7d โ€ข ๐Ÿ—ฃ๏ธ General discussion
๐Ÿ‘€ TFZ WATCHLIST | Monday, August 10, 2026
๐ŸŒŽ Market Context
* SPY โ€“ $773.43
* QQQ โ€“ $723.92
* VIX โ€“ 15.47
* IWM โ€“ $300.68
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are slightly positive this morning, while the Dow is a little softer. The bigger backdrop is still bullish after last weekโ€™s record highs, but traders are now looking ahead to Wednesdayโ€™s July CPI report for the next major Fed/rates catalyst.
The other major catalyst remains the Strait of Hormuz/Iran situation. Progress toward reopening shipping routes could cool oil and inflation pressure; setbacks could push energy and volatility higher again.
Today also has earnings risk. MNDY reports this morning, while RKLB reports after the close.
โธป
๐Ÿ“Š VIX Game Plan
Current VIX: 15.47
๐ŸŸข Under 16 = Buyers In Control
๐ŸŸก 16โ€“18 = Caution
๐Ÿ”ด Above 18 = Sellers In Control
Right now weโ€™re in the buyers-in-control zone, but I still want SPY and QQQ to hold their morning structure before chasing anything.
โธป
๐ŸŸข CALL WATCHLIST
META โ€“ $605.25
CALLS
Reclaim/Hold: $605.00
Targets: $610.00 โ†’ $615.00 โ†’ $620.00
PUTS
Lose: $600.00
Targets: $595.00 โ†’ $590.00 โ†’ $585.00
Catalyst: Strongest relative-strength name on your Mag 7 board this morning while large-cap growth remains supported by slightly positive Nasdaq futures.
Game Plan: META is one of my favorite longs if $605 holds after the open. Donโ€™t chase a straight push into $610.
โธป
NVDA โ€“ $224.37
CALLS
Reclaim: $225.00
Targets: $227.50 โ†’ $230.00 โ†’ $234.00
PUTS
Lose: $222.00
Targets: $220.00 โ†’ $217.50 โ†’ $215.00
Catalyst: AI remains a major earnings and market-leadership theme, and broader corporate profit growth continues to support the technology complex.
Game Plan: I want NVDA + QQQ confirming together. Above $225 with volume gives the cleaner continuation.
โธป
AMZN โ€“ $275.24
CALLS
Reclaim/Hold: $275.50
Targets: $278.00 โ†’ $280.00 โ†’ $284.00
PUTS
Lose: $272.00
Targets: $269.00 โ†’ $266.00 โ†’ $263.00
Catalyst: Premarket relative strength and continued large-cap growth rotation.
Game Plan: Watch $275โ€“$275.50. Holding that area keeps the bullish setup intact.
โธป
GOOGL โ€“ $356.77
CALLS
Reclaim: $357.00
Targets: $360.00 โ†’ $363.00 โ†’ $366.00
PUTS
Lose: $354.00
Targets: $351.00 โ†’ $348.00 โ†’ $345.00
Catalyst: Positive premarket relative strength with Nasdaq futures slightly higher.
Game Plan: Nice clean psychological level at $357. Let it reclaim and hold instead of anticipating.
โธป
RKLB โ€“ $85.09
CALLS
Reclaim: $86.00
Targets: $88.00 โ†’ $90.00 โ†’ $94.00
PUTS
Lose: $82.50
Targets: $80.00 โ†’ $77.50 โ†’ $75.00
Catalyst: Q2 earnings after todayโ€™s close. Rocket Lab has officially confirmed the release for Monday evening.
Game Plan: This is an earnings-momentum trade, not something to chase. Expect elevated IV and potentially violent swings.
โธป
๐Ÿ”ด PUT WATCHLIST
PLTR โ€“ $169.70
CALLS
Reclaim: $172.00
Targets: $175.00 โ†’ $178.00
PUTS
Lose: $169.00
Targets: $166.00 โ†’ $163.00 โ†’ $160.00
Catalyst: Clear relative weakness on your premarket board following its recent huge post-earnings run.
Game Plan: One of the better short-side setups if QQQ weakens and PLTR cannot reclaim $170โ€“$172.
โธป
AMD โ€“ $480.59
CALLS
Reclaim: $485.00
Targets: $490.00 โ†’ $495.00 โ†’ $500.00
PUTS
Lose: $480.00
Targets: $475.00 โ†’ $470.00 โ†’ $465.00
Catalyst: Relative weakness versus NVDA and the broader AI group this morning.
Game Plan: $480 is the decision point. Below it with weak semis = puts become much more interesting.
โธป
MSFT โ€“ $499.19
CALLS
Reclaim: $502.00
Targets: $505.00 โ†’ $510.00
PUTS
Lose: $498.00
Targets: $494.00 โ†’ $490.00 โ†’ $485.00
Catalyst: Premarket relative weakness while several other megacaps are green.
Game Plan: Psychological $500 area matters. Failure underneath $500 favors downside continuation.
โธป
AAPL โ€“ $309.03
CALLS
Reclaim: $311.00
Targets: $314.00 โ†’ $317.00 โ†’ $320.00
PUTS
Lose: $308.00
Targets: $305.00 โ†’ $302.00 โ†’ $300.00
Catalyst: One of the clearest weak names on your Mag 7 screen this morning.
Game Plan: I prefer puts below $308 rather than trying to catch the bottom.
โธป
DDOG โ€“ $233.37
CALLS
Reclaim: $238.00
Targets: $242.00 โ†’ $246.00
PUTS
Lose: $232.00
Targets: $228.00 โ†’ $224.00 โ†’ $220.00
Catalyst: Continued relative weakness in high-growth software.
Game Plan: Better as a weak-stock/strong-market divergence trade. If QQQ rallies and DDOG still cannot participate, thatโ€™s useful information.
โธป
๐Ÿ’ต Small Account Watchlist
๐ŸŸข CALLS
SMCI โ€“ $32.45
Reclaim: $32.75
Targets: $33.50 โ†’ $34.50 โ†’ $35.50
HOOD โ€“ $94.28
Reclaim: $95.00
Targets: $97.00 โ†’ $100.00
NFLX โ€“ $74.15
Reclaim: $74.50
Targets: $76.00 โ†’ $78.00
NVTS โ€“ $14.20
Reclaim: $14.40
Targets: $15.00 โ†’ $15.75
UMAC โ€“ $26.40
Reclaim: $26.75
Targets: $27.50 โ†’ $29.00
๐Ÿ”ด PUTS
HIMS โ€“ $31.03
Lose: $31.00
Targets: $30.00 โ†’ $29.00
QBTS โ€“ $20.70
Lose: $20.50
Targets: $19.75 โ†’ $19.00
RGTI โ€“ $17.79
Lose: $17.50
Targets: $17.00 โ†’ $16.25
SOFI โ€“ $18.30
Lose: $18.20
Targets: $17.75 โ†’ $17.25
IONQ โ€“ $43.77
Lose: $43.50
Targets: $42.00 โ†’ $40.50
For these cheaper names, cheap stock price does not automatically mean cheap or good options. Check spreads, volume, OI and IV before entering.
โธป
โญ Top 3 A+ TFZ Setups
๐Ÿฅ‡ META CALLS
$605 hold/reclaim โ†’ $610 โ†’ $615 โ†’ $620
Best combination this morning of relative strength + clean psychological levels + strong large-cap environment.
๐Ÿฅˆ NVDA CALLS
$225 reclaim โ†’ $227.50 โ†’ $230 โ†’ $234
Higher probability if QQQ stays above its opening structure and VIX remains below 16.
๐Ÿฅ‰ PLTR PUTS
Lose $169 โ†’ $166 โ†’ $163 โ†’ $160
PLTR is showing clear relative weakness after a massive recent run. I like this better on a failed bounce than chasing an opening dump.
โธป
๐ŸŽฏ TFZ Game Plan
With VIX at 15.47, buyers have the advantage going into the session, but SPY and QQQ were already pulling back from their early premarket highs on your screenshots.
So weโ€™re not automatically buying just because VIX is under 16.
15-minute structure first.
5-minute confirmation second.
2-minute entry confirmation last.
My early priority:
META > $605 = calls
NVDA > $225 = calls
PLTR < $169 = puts
AMD < $480 = puts
Watch oil and headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz because renewed geopolitical tension could quickly change the risk environment. CPI on Wednesday is the weekโ€™s next major scheduled macro test.
We confirm, not guess.
Educational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ronald Chapman
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๐Ÿ‘€ TFZ WATCHLIST | Monday, August 10, 2026
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