Sharing morning research
Im a little behind. I'll be lookin at charts at 10:30am. Here is my morning report. Let me know if you use this to help with any trades today. If so, post in community section.
rading Daily Report (Gem)
Custom Gem
Trading Daily Report Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 | Time: 10:07 AM EDT Analyst Mindset: Expected Value (EV) focus. Mathematical probabilities dictate the play; we do not guess.
Futures & Macros Overview
- VIX: Current at 19.54, down slightly from the previous 19.99 (Δ -0.45). Volatility remains elevated above the 18 threshold but is currently contracting, holding off any extreme rip tide warnings.
- Market Influence: With the VIX hovering near 20, premium remains rich in selected sectors, but the contraction suggests standard path logic holds without needing immediate macro-hedging overrides.
The Path Engine: Entry Logic Signals
🟢 Bull Entries (Long/Bullish)
- SPY (GU) - Meets Path A.
- QQQ (GU) - Meets Path A.
- IWM (GU) - Meets Path A.
- SMH (GU) - Meets Path A.
- XLK (GU) - Meets Path A.
- AMD (GU) - Meets Path A.
- AMZN (GU) - Meets Path A.
- AVGO (GU) - Meets Path A.
- LUMN (GU) - Meets Path A.
- NUE (GU) - Meets Path A.
- NVO (GU) - Meets Path A.
- GOOGL (HU) - Meets Path B.
- HPE (HU) - Meets Path B.
- SLB (HU) - Meets Path B.
🔴 Bear Entries (Short/Bearish)
- META (GD) - Meets Path A.
- NFLX (GD) - Meets Path A.
- FCX (HD) - Meets Path B.
- IAU (HD) - Meets Path B.
- TLT (HD) - Meets Path B.
- AA (HD) - Meets Path B.
(Note: NVDA triggered the W-Rule due to conflicting HD badge with Green Stop Light and ltu trend. MSFT explicitly labeled conflict. Both benched from directional entries.)
The GNG Matrix: Options & Volatility
Actionable Premium (Today IVR >= 35)
- SELL Short Puts (Bullish/Elevated IVR): SMH, XLK, AMD, AVGO, HPE, LUMN, NUE, NVO, SLB.
- SELL Short Calls (Core Longs/Elevated IVR): CVX, HPE, LUMN, MSFT, NUE, VZ.
Actionable Buy Premium (Directional Signal + IVR < 30)
- BUY Premium (Long Options): SPY, QQQ, IWM, AMZN, GOOGL, META, NFLX, TLT, AA.
Low IVR List (<= 25) - Cheap Options
- NFLX: 0 [Δ 0]
- TSLA: 0 [Δ 0]
- IBIT: 0 [Δ 0]
- META: 1 [Δ -6]
- TLT: 1 [Δ +1]
- SPY: 5 [Δ 0]
- AAPL: 7 [Δ +3]
- JPM: 15 [Δ +12]
- XLF: 18 [Δ +4]
- AMZN: 18 [Δ +9]
- GOOGL: 18 [Δ -71]
- MS: 22 [Δ +4]
High IVR List (>= 35) - Premium Sellers
- XLK: 770 [Δ +609]
- AMD: 107 [Δ -6]
- HPE: 88 [Δ N/A]
- NUE: 87 [Δ +78]
- CVX: 81 [Δ +10]
- VLO: 79 [Δ -15]
- NBIS: 74 [Δ N/A]
- SMH: 73 [Δ +6]
- XLE: 70 [Δ +6]
- CRWD: 70 [Δ +10]
- VRT: 64 [Δ +4]
- XLP: 63 [Δ -9]
- LUMN: 61 [Δ N/A]
- XLI: 59 [Δ +4]
- XLV: 59 [Δ -60]
- AVGO: 58 [Δ +11]
- NVO: 56 [Δ +6]
- SLB: 56 [Δ +5]
- FCX: 54 [Δ -17]
- IAU: 52 [Δ +3]
- MSFT: 45 [Δ +4]
- VZ: 39 [Δ +11]
Core Holdings & News Analysis
- LUMN: 5/5 earnings post-market tonight. IVR is pumped at 61. It carries a GU badge, allowing us to leverage the elevated IV through covered calls or cash-secured puts.
- HPE: Highlighted as "extreme ob" (overbought). With a HU badge and an IVR of 88, it's prime EV for writing short calls against our 50-share long position to capture the volatility crush.
- FCX: Carrying an HD badge and noting "still strong down pressure." As a core holding, we are weathering the delta, but we must respect the EV. IVR is at 54, keeping it viable for premium strategies if risk tolerance allows, though it does not qualify for our standard Short Call logic due to the bearish signal against a long portfolio position.
- VZ: Earnings clear and on the verge of entry. IVR sits at 39. W-Rule is active for directional plays, but it qualifies for Short Calls against our 25 shares.
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