Will the Market Head Lower on Monday Through the Week? May be Santa Claus Set to Arrive On Friday.

Phil Vo

Dec '24 • 💡 Trade Ideas & Analysis

Market Direction Forecast for Tomorrow Through End of the Week

1. SPY (S&P 500 ETF - 1 Hour Chart)

Current Sentiment: Slightly bearish in the short term.
SPY is consolidating near key support at 602.13 with resistance overhead at 603.85 and 608.43.
A downward-sloping trendline hints at weak momentum unless SPY reclaims 603.85. If SPY breaks below 602, it could retest 597–600 support.
MACD: Shows a lack of bullish crossover, indicating sellers are in control.

2. QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF - 1 Hour Chart)

Current Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish with a cautious tone.
QQQ is holding above the support trendline but faces resistance at 529.70 and 533.17. A break above 530 could lead to a retest of the highs at 533.17.
Conversely, failure to hold 526.17 may pull QQQ toward 520–525.
MACD: Flatlining, which suggests indecision, but price is still within an upward structure.

3. VIX (Volatility Index - 1 Hour Chart)

Current Sentiment: Uptick in volatility expected.
VIX is trending upward slightly, with support at 13.24 and resistance at 13.84. A move above 14.00 could signal rising fear in the market, putting pressure on SPY and QQQ.
Elevated VIX levels typically align with bearish sentiment for equities.

Forecast for Market Direction:

Tomorrow (Monday): A slight downward bias for SPY and QQQ unless key resistance levels (603.85 for SPY and 530 for QQQ) are reclaimed early. VIX suggests a cautious tone, so any unexpected news could fuel a pullback.
End of the Week: If SPY breaks below 602, a move to 597–600 is likely, indicating more selling pressure. QQQ must hold 526 to maintain its structure. Breaking below could lead to more downside pressure. VIX rising above 14.00 will add to downside risk.

Conclusion: Market direction leans slightly bearish for SPY and neutral for QQQ with the potential for downside pressure if key supports break. VIX’s behavior will be critical for gauging volatility levels.

Your thoughts?

2 comments