15d • BACKTEST & LIVE REPLAYS
XAU BACKTESTING REPORT NOTES LIVE FAIR VALUE GAP (FVG)
Date: 30 July
Strategy Tested: Fair Value Gap (FVG) only
Results
Total Trades: 11
Winning Trades: 4
Losing Trades: 7
Risk-to-Reward: 1:2
Overall Result: +1% Net Profit
Key TakeawayS
A 36% win rate was still profitable because of the 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio.
The edge comes from letting winners reach full TP while keeping losses fixed.
Not every FVG is tradable—market structure and trend direction matter.
Consistency in execution is more important than having a high win rate.
A positive expectancy strategy can remain profitable even with more losing than winning trades.
Patience is essential. Waiting for quality FVG setups reduces unnecessary losses.
Continue logging trades to identify which FVG setups perform best (trend continuation vs. reversal, session, timeframe, etc.)
Action Points
Maintain strict 1:2 RR.
Avoid forcing trades outside your FVG criteria.
Backtest at least 100 trades before making any changes to the strategy.
Record the reason for every win and loss to refine your entry rules.
Lesson of the Day: A profitable trader doesn't need to win most trades—only to manage risk consistently and let the edge play out over a large sample. @everyone
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XAU BACKTESTING REPORT NOTES LIVE FAIR VALUE GAP (FVG)
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