Jul 18 • Daily Game Plans
IWM Daily game plan
🦁 IWM GAME PLAN | WEEK OF JULY 20–24, 2026
📖 Weekly Map
• Weekly High: 297.81
• Weekly Low: 291.64
• Weekly Range: $6.17
• Weekly Midline: 294.73
• Weekly Bias: Bearish below 294.73–295.37
IWM finished the week at 294.04 after sellers pushed price down to 291.64. Buyers pulled it back above 293.03, but price still closed below the weekly midline and the 9 EMA at 295.37.
Buyers defended the bottom of the map. Sellers still control the higher ground.
⚔️ Daily Battlefield
• Friday High: 296.13
• Friday Low: 291.64
• Friday Range: $4.49
• Friday Midline: 293.89
• Daily Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Friday opened at 292.03, swept the weekly low, rallied to 296.13, then closed at 294.04.
That was a two-sided liquidity day. Bears trapped buyers near 296.13, while buyers trapped late puts near 291.64.
🌵 Desert
• Chop Zone: 293.03–294.60
Inside this zone:
• Expect fake breakouts.
• Expect VWAP battles.
• Expect fast reversals.
• Expect both sides to hunt liquidity.
The middle is where retail gets chopped up. Hunters wait near the edges.
💧 Watering Hole
• Decision Level: 294.60
Above 294.60:
• Buyers can attack 295.37.
• Reclaiming 295.37 opens 296.13.
• Holding above 296.13 opens 297.81.
Below 294.60:
• Sellers can push toward 293.03.
• Losing 293.03 opens 292.36.
• Breaking 291.64 makes the blood real.
🦶 Footprints
• Buyers defended 291.64 after the opening flush.
• Sellers rejected 296.13.
• Price closed near the $4.49 daily midline at 293.89.
• 293.03 remained an important institutional decision level.
• 294.60 acted as resistance into the close.
• The 9 EMA at 295.37 remains above price.
🧬 Day Personality | Monday
• Typical Role: Builds the map for the week.
• Continuation Day? Possible if Friday’s weakness holds below 294.60.
• Reversal Day? Possible if 291.64 is swept and reclaimed.
• Expansion Day? Moderate after Friday’s $4.49 range.
• Trend Day? Confirmation required.
• Trap Day? High during the opening move.
• Best Time: 9:45–10:30 AM.
Monday does not have to finish the weekly story. Its first job is to reveal where institutions want to build the next battlefield.
🌦️ Market Weather
• Season: Neutral
• Forecast: Early range discovery followed by possible expansion
• Temperature: Moderate to High Volatility
• Wind: Sellers have the early advantage
• Visibility: Foggy inside 293.03–294.60
• Water: Contested
• Predator: Institutions
• Prey: Retail traders chasing the opening move
🦁 Watering Hole Score
• Trend Strength: 6.2/10
• Bull Probability: 44%
• Bear Probability: 56%
• Trend Day Odds: 58%
• Reversal Odds: 42%
• Best Direction: Puts below 293.03; calls above 295.37
• Most Likely Move: Liquidity sweep followed by range expansion
• Best Entry Window: 9:45–10:30 AM
• Danger Zone: 11:30 AM–1:00 PM
🎯 Calls
• Contracts: 294C / 295C / 296C
• Aggressive Entry: Reclaim and hold above 294.60
• Primary Entry: Break and retest 295.37
• Momentum Entry: Break and hold above 296.13
• Targets:
• T1: 295.37
• T2: 296.13
• T3: 297.81
• T4: 299.23
• Invalidation: Price loses 294.60 after the entry and cannot reclaim it.
🎯 Puts
• Contracts: 294P / 293P / 292P
• Aggressive Entry: Reject 294.60 and lose 293.89
• Primary Entry: Break and reject 293.03 from underneath
• Momentum Entry: Break and hold below 291.64
• Targets:
• T1: 293.03
• T2: 292.36
• T3: 291.64
• T4: 290.68
• T5: 288.93
• Invalidation: Price reclaims 294.60 and holds above it.
🕘 9:45 Candle
• High: Update after the candle closes
• Low: Update after the candle closes
• Long Trigger: 5-minute close above the 9:45 high followed by a successful 1-minute retest
• Short Trigger: 5-minute close below the 9:45 low followed by a failed 1-minute reclaim
• No Trade: Price remains trapped inside the 9:45 range
⚠️ Fake Blood vs Real Blood
🩸 Fake Blood
• Price sweeps below 293.03 or 291.64.
• Sellers fail to hold the breakdown.
• Price quickly reclaims the level.
• Volume fades after the initial flush.
• Late puts become trapped.
🦈 Real Blood
• Price breaks below support with expanding volume.
• The broken level becomes resistance.
• The retest fails.
• Price continues printing lower highs and lower lows.
🐻 Fake Bear Trap
• Price breaks below 291.64 and immediately returns above it.
• Buyers defend the reclaim.
• Price pushes back toward 293.03 and 294.60.
🐂 Fake Bull Trap
• Price breaks above 295.37 or 296.13.
• Buyers fail to hold the breakout.
• Price falls back below the level.
• Calls become trapped inside the desert.
🧠 Trade Psychology
• Monday creates information before it creates opportunity.
• Do not confuse the opening move with the final direction.
• The breakout gets attention. The retest reveals commitment.
📓 Today’s Lesson
• A level is not truly broken until price can survive the retest.
🦁 The market opens. The animals move first. The hunters wait.
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IWM Daily game plan
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