May 13 • MARKET PULSE 🟢
MARKET PULSE — MAY 13, 2026
PPI joins CPI in the hot column, megacaps carry the tape, and the breadth question gets sharper.
Welcome to the Market Pulse — the daily breakdown of what mattered in the tape, what Tydeflow detected, and what's worth watching next.
WHERE THINGS STAND
SPY is trading around $743, near the day's high after dipping as low as $735 this morning. The market is choppy — small intraday range masking real movement underneath.
Breadth is weak again. Only 143 stocks in the S&P 500 advancing — about 28%. Yesterday's 22.8% advancing tape extended into today. Two straight sessions of narrow leadership while the index level
hovers near records.
WHAT JUST HIT
Wholesale prices (PPI) jumped 1.4% in April — well above the 0.5% expected. Annualized that's nearly 6%, the biggest jump since 2022.
This is now the second consecutive hot inflation print. Yesterday's CPI came in at 3.8% annual. Today's PPI confirms producer-level inflation is also accelerating, not just consumer prices.
The Fed math has changed. CME FedWatch is now showing a 30% probability of a rate HIKE this year. Not a cut. A hike.
That's a meaningful shift in what the market has been pricing.
THE TAPE STORY
What's interesting is HOW the market is absorbing the PPI shock. Despite hot inflation, megacap tech is rallying:
→ Nvidia, AMD, Apple, Tesla all higher on the day
→ Chip sector up 3% as a group
→ NVDA earnings on May 21 has analysts upgrading: BofA $320 target, Oppenheimer $265
→ AMD's run is getting questioned (Daiwa downgraded to outperform from buy on valuation)
The Mag 7 are doing all the work. Everything else is bleeding.
Sector reads:
→ Communication Services: -1.2%
→ Consumer Staples: -1.0%
→ Utilities: leading losses
→ Energy: mixed, oil pulled back from yesterday's highs
WHAT TYDEFLOW IS SHOWING
Quiet day for ENTRY signals across most watchlists. That's the system working as designed. When breadth is this narrow and the tape is this choppy, flow detection requires multi-factor alignment that rarely exists.
Specific reads worth noting:
→ XLE: Yesterday's HIGH CONVICTION Short-term ENTRY at $56 is holding profit despite oil pulling back today. The institutional positioning Tydeflow detected before the Iran headlines is still visible in the tape behavior.
→ NVDA: Watching closely into May 21 earnings. Tydeflow is reading continued institutional positioning ahead of the print. Whether that converts to an ENTRY classification before earnings or stays in WATCH state will depend on confluence alignment.
→ The semis broadly: AMD, INTC, QCOM all stronger today. The AI
story is the only story carrying this market.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Three days of breadth-weak, megacap-driven tape after Friday's narrow record close. This is exactly the kind of structure that breaks suddenly when the leaders crack.
What's actually happening:
→ Inflation is sticky. Both CPI and PPI confirming.
→ Fed cuts are off the table. Hikes are back on the table.
→ Geopolitical risk (Iran, Trump-Xi China summit) keeps inflation pressure elevated through oil
→ Only mega-cap tech is leading. Everything else is leaking.
→ The Mag 7 carries the index — when those names eventually take a breather, the rest of the market doesn't have legs to step up
This isn't a top. It's a stress test that's still running.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
→ NVDA earnings May 21 — the entire AI complex hangs on this print
→ Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation vote — pace of confirmation matters for rate path expectations
→ WTI above $100 — sustained oil pressure compounds inflation
→ Trump-Xi China summit developments — China is Iran's biggest oil buyer
→ VIX behavior — sustained breaks above 18-20 signal real shift in market psychology
→ Russell 2000 — if small caps keep lagging, rotation story breaks
HOW TO THINK ABOUT THIS
For traders using Tydeflow's framework, this is when the system's structured signals do their best work.
The WAIT state is doing real work right now. Tydeflow spends most of its time in WAIT because flow detection requires multi-factor alignment that rarely exists in choppy markets like this one.
The Signal P/L tracker exists to show you whether the indicator has been working through the current stretch. If the number is positive, the system is reading the tape correctly. If it dips negative, that's information worth respecting.
Most traders blow up during transitions because they keep trading the previous market. The discipline is recognizing the shift through the data.
Stay disciplined.
— Tyler
WHAT IS TYDEFLOW?
Tydeflow PRO is a TradingView indicator that detects institutional footprints — the observable patterns that hedge funds and pension funds leave on the chart when they execute large positions.
Six footprint detectors. Five confluence factors. Honest performance tracking on every signal.
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This is observational commentary, not investment advice. Trading decisions are yours alone. Pattern observation only. Trading involves real risk. Consult a licensed investment advisor or financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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MARKET PULSE — MAY 13, 2026
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