Nov 18 (edited) • Trade Review
11/18/2025 Trade Review
MSFT Short Review
In my pre-market plan, I had mentioned MSFT being on watch. Why?
- HTF weakness
- QQQ weakness
- Then Bill Gates Foundation selling shares
My thinking was that with all the volatility going on, it would get the extra push it needed to really have a crisp move potential.
Though there are some things now in hindsight that if I were able to go back and do it again, I would probably avoid because of larger risk, like:
- Already a fairly large gap down. Yes, the VIX is high and it can continue, though generally with large gaps, it does just become more difficult. Because not only do the premiums get more expensive, but the follow-through can become shallower.
- Not the best price structure. Yes, I got short at 9:38 EST, but the price structure was very reliant on just a few candles, and given the price response immediately after, I believe I got lucky with the broader market in my favor.
- Daily chart not the best. Yes, it has recently gone down, but also recently has tried bouncing. I just don't see the HTF price structure to support it.
Made money, yes, but over the longer run, I don't think this is something that can be sustained, so I'm grateful for the win but also aware that there need to be higher standards for longevity.
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11/18/2025 Trade Review
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