🍀
Mar 18 • 🔴Recordings
3 and a half hours until FOMC and we have had a nice move
What we’re seeing here is a very aggressive push down, and the timing is important.
This is happening before FOMC, not after.
And that tells you something straight away.
This move is unlikely to be a reaction. It’s much more likely to be positioning.
And importantly, this is actually playing out exactly as we discussed earlier.
We said that 5000 was acting like a magnet, that liquidity was building below, and that the market would likely come down and take it. That’s exactly what’s just happened.
If you look at the structure before the drop, price had been consolidating around that 5000 area for a long time. That consolidation was building liquidity. You had:
- Buyers placing stops below the range
- Traders trying to buy support
- Breakout sellers waiting underneath
So below that zone, there was a clear pool of liquidity.
And this move has now run straight through it.
Not just a tap. A full, aggressive sweep.
That tells you two things.
First, the liquidity we expected to be there was there.
Second, this wasn’t just stop hunting, there was real selling behind it.
This is where a lot of traders get caught out. They expect the big move to happen during FOMC.
But very often, the move actually starts before. Institutions don’t always wait for the news.
They use the time before it to:
- Trigger stops
- Access liquidity
- Build positions
Then FOMC provides the volatility to either continue or reverse that move.
So what we’re seeing here is not random. It’s preparation.
This move confirms that downside liquidity has now been taken.
The question now isn’t “will it drop?” The question is:
Was that the move… or is that the beginning of the move?
Because once liquidity is cleared, the market either continues in that direction… or it has no reason to stay there and starts to reverse.
So, now we’re at the key moment.
After a move like this, there are typically three outcomes.
Continuation Lower
If price holds down here, forms weak pullbacks, and continues to press lower, then sellers are still in control. In that case, FOMC could accelerate the downside.
Reversal After Liquidity Grab
If this move was primarily about taking liquidity, then you may start to see price slow down and push back up. This would trap breakout sellers and shift momentum. FOMC would then provide the volatility for that reversal.
No Immediate Move
There is also a real chance that price simply stabilises. After such a large move, the market may pause and rebalance. FOMC could create spikes, but no clear direction straight away.
Now it comes down to behaviour.
If price continues to show:
- Lower highs
- Weak bounces
- Continued pressure
Then the downside likely continues.
But if we start to see:
- Sharp rejections from below
- Fast moves back upward
- Failure to continue lower
Then this move may have been the liquidity grab we anticipated.
The key takeaway is this. The market has already done what we expected.
It found the liquidity below 5000 and took it.
Now FOMC is not about creating the move. It’s about deciding what happens next.
This drop is a liquidity-driven move that cleared out stops exactly where we expected.
Now the market is sitting in a new position, and the next move will depend on whether sellers can maintain control or whether this was simply a setup for a reversal.
So going into FOMC, don’t focus on the news. Focus on what price does next, because that’s where the real information is.
1
0 comments
3 and a half hours until FOMC and we have had a nice move
powered by
Suggested communities
Powered by