Altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—often outperform Bitcoin during specific market cycles. This performance difference is due to several factors, although the degree of outperformance can vary widely over time and across individual altcoins. Here’s a breakdown of why this happens and how historical data sheds light on their performance.
Reasons Why Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin in Certain Market Phases
- Market Cap and Volatility: Altcoins typically have smaller market caps than Bitcoin, making them more susceptible to price swings. Smaller market caps can translate to larger gains when the market is bullish, as it takes less capital to move their prices. This higher volatility attracts investors seeking high returns, which can amplify their performance relative to Bitcoin in bull markets.
- Innovation and Niche Markets: Many altcoins are built on new blockchain technologies or offer specialized applications, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) or non-fungible tokens (NFTs). This diversification allows them to capture emerging trends faster than Bitcoin, which is more conservative in development. These technological or sector-specific advantages can drive investor interest, often leading to significant outperformance in the short term.
- Market Cycles and Speculation: Altcoins often outperform during "alt seasons"—periods when investors shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins for potentially higher returns. These cycles tend to occur after Bitcoin experiences a substantial rally, as investors take profits and diversify into altcoins. During such cycles, it's common to see altcoins double or even triple in value over short periods.
- Liquidity and Access: Liquidity on exchanges plays a role, as the demand for altcoins can spike quickly when retail investors enter the market. Bitcoin’s higher liquidity can dampen sudden price changes, while altcoins may experience sharp increases due to their relatively lower liquidity.
Historical Data on Altcoin vs. Bitcoin Performance
Historically, altcoins have had periods of substantial outperformance relative to Bitcoin, particularly during 2017 and 2021, both prominent bull markets. Some insights based on historical data include:
- 2017 Bull Market: During the 2017 bull market, many altcoins saw exponential growth. Ethereum, for instance, grew by around 9,000% over the year, while Bitcoin increased by approximately 1,318% during the same period. Other altcoins like Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin also saw gains of thousands of percentage points, demonstrating substantial outperformance.
- 2021 Bull Market: In the 2021 bull market, altcoins once again outperformed Bitcoin in certain periods. For example, Solana surged by over 10,000% in 2021, while Ethereum rose by roughly 400%, compared to Bitcoin’s 60% gain. Altcoins connected to DeFi and NFT sectors, like Uniswap and Axie Infinity, also surged in popularity and price.
- Bear Markets: In contrast, Bitcoin tends to outperform altcoins during bear markets. When the overall market sentiment is bearish, investors view Bitcoin as a safer store of value within the crypto space. Consequently, Bitcoin often retains more value relative to altcoins, which may drop 90% or more from their all-time highs.
By How Much Do Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin?
While specific performance varies by coin and timeframe, altcoins can outperform Bitcoin by factors of 2x, 5x, or even 10x during strong bull markets. The average outperformance tends to fall in the range of 3-5x in favourable cycles. However, this comes with increased risk, as these gains are often reversed quickly in downturns.