5d • General discussion
EagleTrade Weekly Outlook — Week of February 17–21, 2026
Happy Tuesday, EagleTrade family.
Markets were closed yesterday for Presidents’ Day, and we’re walking into a week loaded with catalysts. Let’s get right to it.
The Big Picture
The S&P 500 is around 6,836 — only about 2% off all-time highs. But last week was rough. The S&P fell 1.39%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, and the VIX spiked nearly 18%. The culprit? A growing fear that the massive AI spending cycle may not deliver the returns investors expected. That anxiety started in software and has now spread into financials, retail, and logistics.
Meanwhile, a significant rotation is underway. Energy, Materials, Staples, and Industrials are all up double digits year-to-date while growth and tech names lag. Bearish sentiment on the AAII survey jumped to 38.1% — well above average.
The silver lining: inflation is cooling. CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, below expectations and the lowest since May. The economy is still growing. Rotation is not collapse — it’s the market repricing risk after two years of AI-driven momentum.
What’s on the Calendar
This week matters. Here are the dates to circle:
Wednesday brings the FOMC meeting minutes, which should give us clarity on the rate-cut timeline after soft CPI. Thursday features Walmart earnings — a key read on consumer spending. Friday is the heavyweight: PCE prices (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) and the Q4 GDP advance estimate land together.
In short, by Friday we’ll know a lot more about where rates, inflation, and growth stand heading into March.
This Week’s Game Plan
Respect the rotation. Money is leaving expensive growth and flowing into value and cyclicals. If you’re in quality positions with time on your side, this is noise. Don’t let a red week shake you out of a sound thesis.
Let the data come to you. With FOMC minutes, PCE, GDP, and a major earnings report next week, this is a week for patience — not impulse. The best entries come after clarity, not before.
Cash is a position. The VIX above 20 means premiums are elevated. You’re paying more for contracts right now. Sometimes the smartest move is no move at all.
Risk Management
If any position is approaching 30 days to expiration — you know the rule. Exit. No exceptions. If a stop loss has been hit, honor it. You can always re-enter. And remember: the most you can lose is what you put up. Your risk is defined. Your upside is not.
Data and conviction must align before any play. If either one is missing, wait.
Final Word
Weeks like this can feel unsettling, but they’re exactly why we play deep swings with time on our side. The market is repricing, not breaking. Let the calendar play out, stay disciplined, and the opportunities will present themselves.
Trade wisely. Stay sharp.
Aziz | EagleTrade
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EagleTrade Weekly Outlook — Week of February 17–21, 2026
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