Space X - $SPCX - currently at $128

I personally didn't buy Space X during the IPO. It ran up pretty quickly to $224(ish), during that week.

It has since now dropped to about $115-128.

Something to keep in mind is "unlocks". For those who don't know what this means. I'll try to make it simple.

Every company has employees. Some Companies give those employees "shares" or stocks. Most of the time they are worthless (no liquidation event or never go public). However, sometimes they are very valuable. In this instance, the employees who work for SpaceX have received shares, and lots of them dependent on diff variables (time w company, position, etc.)

What happens is when a company goes from private to a publicly traded one, aka on the stock market, these employees are now able to sell those shares and turn "paper money" into real money. HOWEVER... there are rules.

There are things called lock up or black out periods. Where the employees of that company are NOT ALLOWED to sell. For many reasons, one being, they are privy to certain information that is private and not public information. so if they can sell when internal important news hits, they can react and sell or buy with an "unfair advantage", for that reason, there are periods in which they are not legally allowed to sell.

Another thing is when a company goes public, typical "lock up period", is going to be 6 months, and then some other small intricacies dependent on role, share amount, compensation package (mostly executives), etc.

Hopefully you understand lock ups/black out periods, at least at a high level. That said, SpaceX has some major unlocks coming up. Here are the dates

August 6, 2026: The first major unlock occurs right after the company's debut earnings report on August 4, 2026, freeing up 20% of eligible locked-up stock.
August - October 2026: Smaller tranches (about 7% each) are released on a rolling schedule every two to three weeks.
Late October / November 2026: An additional 28% of shares unlocks following the third-quarter earnings report.
December 8, 2026: The main 180-day lock-up concludes, freeing any remaining shares from the initial block.
June 12, 2027: Founder Elon Musk’s shares (and those of certain key executives) are locked for one full year, releasing after this 366-day period

So to close this out... WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT?!

Lets keep it simple. Think about Supply and Demand.

When an unlock happens, its typically a good indicator that there is going to be an increase, and potentially substantial increase in supply. (A lot of employees probably want to sell their shares and buy a house, a car, a fucking ISLAND)...but can only do so with selling their shares.

So if the public, aka me and you, and other people do literally not buy every one of those shares..... If the demand of the buyers, does not EVENLY MATCH the supply of the sellers, this is what makes the price of a share go down. If there is an equal, or balanced number of sellers and buyers, buyers and sellers, price stays even. Not just in stock markets, this is any/every market.

If you start to introduce more buyers than sellers, aka a lot more people buying then there are selling of said thing, in this case "space X" shares, then its unbalanced, so then the price goes up.

Did that make sense?

Lets drive it home.

The simple question for you. Do you think a lot of space x employees will want to turn their hard work, their well earned paper wealth (numbers on a screen), into real wealth, or at least recognize some of their newly minted riches? I do.

The second part to that question, do you think there will be as many buyers as there will be sellers when these unlocks happen? I don't.

For that reason, I do think the price will go down for a bit longer.

The caveat.

I wasn't a buyer during the initial IPO. Surely, I thought it'd go up. But not for long. I thought I'd likely crash, or at least be valued less after a little bit of time. While I can't predict the future. That is exactly what happened.

While I don't think buying it now and maybe through these unlocks will be the best price you can get on SpaceX, I do however think that right now closer to the 1 T valuation and where the company can go over the course of the next few years, buying during this time. Post IPO correction will be great value.

For that, I've started to buy. I will do so over time in tranches. Not all at once.

I hope you learned something from this quick write up, would love for you to share to those who you think would get some value or learn a bit from this.

Cheers

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Space X - $SPCX - currently at $128