1d • General discussion
Market Outlook Q3 & Q4 - 2026
Sharing some more notes for the rest of the year!
- Overall Direction is slow, positive drift rather than a surge
- Total project spending is up modestly.
- Downside risks: sticky rates, refinancing stress in office/retail, geopolitical shocks.
- Upside: accelerated public/infrastructure implementation, selective rate relief, stronger manufacturing policy execution.
- Manufacturing / Industrial is likely to be an overperforming sector with a bias toward high-tech and strategic sectors.
- Healthcare and life sciences is likely to be an overperforming sector in strong demographic and research hubs.
- Public/institutional work is likely to be an overperforming sector where federal/state funds are already appropriated.
- Data centers and mission-critical is likely to be an overperforming sector, but is often reported within broader commercial/industrial categories.
- Traditional new office buildings are likely to underperform or remain challenged, however remodels and repositioning remain strong
- Some markets are over-supplied or structurally shifting submarkets and are likely to underperform or remain challenged (e.g., some urban cores with high vacancy and weak fundamentals).
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Market Outlook Q3 & Q4 - 2026
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