6d • General discussion
Bad week for crypto?
Bitcoin just had plenty of reasons to fall. But It didn’t.
This week gave crypto investors almost everything they supposedly didn’t want.
📈 A hawkish Fed
🏛️ The CLARITY Act hitting a roadblock
💸 More Bitcoin ETF outflows
⚠️ More uncertainty around rates and liquidity
And yet Bitcoin so far has held up really well.
That interests me far more than another prediction about where BTC will be next week.
Because I’m becoming increasingly convinced that the old “Bitcoin 4-year cycle” isn’t enough to understand this market anymore.
I think macro matters more.
Rates.
Liquidity.
Government debt.
Bond markets.
Inflation.
Central-bank policy.
And eventually… debasement.
Raoul Pal’s longer-term argument is what I’ve been following for the last 4-5 years.
Governments are carrying enormous debt loads while ageing populations put increasing pressure on public finances.
If the long-term response is continued monetary debasement, then scarce assets and productive technology could become increasingly important.
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin goes straight up.
It certainly doesn’t mean altseason starts tomorrow.
But it does make me question the idea that we can simply look at a halving date, count forward a certain number of days and know where we are in the cycle.
This week was a good example.
The headlines looked worse than the price action.
And when an asset refuses to fall despite bad news, I was very much paying attention.
My focus going forward is increasingly on:
👉 Global liquidity
👉 Inflation
👉 Interest rates and bonds
👉 Bitcoin dominance
👉 ETF flows
👉 Regulation
👉 How Bitcoin actually reacts to all of the above
Not a date circled on a four-year-cycle chart.
I could be completely wrong — and I’m always happy to change my view when the evidence changes.
But right now, I think macro is driving crypto far more than the halving clock.
What do you think?
Is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle still alive — or has macro taken over?
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Bad week for crypto?
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