28d • General discussion
The global economy looks fine right now. That's exactly the problem.
Iran cut off its energy exports when the war started. Prices barely moved. Shelves are stocked. People aren't panicking.
Here's the thing that keeps nagging at me though: oil tankers travel at 15 mph. The physical shortage hasn't even arrived yet. Those last pre-war shipments are still at sea. In the meantime, governments are quietly drawing down emergency stockpiles and managing speculator sentiment so markets don't freak out.
Those are both one-time moves.
When the reserves are gone and the final tankers dock, you're probably looking at demand destruction. Airlines cutting routes, farms pulling back, manufacturing slowing. Not temporarily. The energy infrastructure that got destroyed isn't coming back quickly.
Max Fisher put out a breakdown on this worth watching. His take is that what we're seeing right now is a lag, not stability, and that heating shortages and inflation that sticks around for years is a realistic outcome.
0
0 comments
The global economy looks fine right now. That's exactly the problem.
skool.com/bright-ventures-9241
A community for teenagers looking to grow themselves, find their passions, and overcoming obstacles
Powered by