2d • General discussion
SpaceX Earnings
First earnings report since the June IPO. Clean sweep on the estimates:
- Revenue $7.81B vs $6.93B expected — up 92% YoY
- Loss per share $0.09 vs $0.26 expected
- All three segments beat (Connectivity, AI, Space)
- Gross margin 55.3%, up from 43.9% a year ago
- Starlink at 12M subscribers, doubled YoY
- AI segment posted positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time
Capex came in at $18.4B for the quarter. A year ago, it was $2.8B. $15.8B of that went into AI infrastructure alone. This caused Cash Flow to reach -$25B. However, they can absorb it because of the IPO that brought in over $100B.
The most important remark of the report was that the CFO said AI compute is hitting a sub-one-year payback. If that's true, $18B/quarter is cheap, and the valuation makes sense. If it's really three years, this is a completely different company and $1.55T enterprise value has a long way to fall.
What I'm watching in Q3: does capex hold near $18B or decelerate? Does Starlink ARPU hold $66 for a second straight quarter? And the lock-up expiry — roughly $116B of shares — will probably drive the price more than fundamentals will.
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SpaceX Earnings
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